The last American troops flew out of Erbil Air Base on 30 September, closing the Iraq leg of the counter-ISIS mission, the day after Qatari mediators carried a written US answer to Iran's foreign minister in Doha. A licence covering emergency ship repairs lapsed while five ships were hit over the following week. Supertanker earnings passed $1.2m a day for the first time on record.
Washington's executed actions ran against its declared line six times, and half required no decision at all.
US Central Command flew its last troops out of Erbil Air Base on 30 September, closing the Iraq leg of a counter-Islamic State mission that has run since 2014. The written American answer to Tehran had reached Iran's foreign minister in Doha the day before.
United StatesAmerica's last troops left Erbil Air Base on 30 September, ending the Iraq leg of Operation Inherent Resolve. Most of the 1,500 coalition personnel on the counter-Islamic State mission were based there. The task force itself moved its headquarters to Jordan.
Three days earlier the American carrier Theodore Roosevelt sailed to relieve George Washington. The relief holds two strike groups rather than building a third.
Qatar carried Iran's seven-day plan for reopening the Strait of Hormuz into New York on 23 September and brought Washington's written answer back to Abbas Araghchi in Doha on the evening of 29 September. Trump had rejected the plan three days earlier.
United States×2Qatar×2Abbas Araghchi met Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in New York on 22 September, the first structured American contact with Tehran of this war. Qatar carried Iran's seven-day plan for reopening the strait of Hormuz. Trump rejected it on 26 September, and Qatar returned a written answer to Doha three days later.
Oman hosts the next round. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates want the blockade kept.
Treasury designated a ten-node Iranian missile and uncrewed-aircraft procurement network on 29 September, placing KavoshCom Asia R and D Group of Tehran at the centre. Three of the companies share the Cavalier Dynamics name and are separately incorporated in Riyadh, Islamabad and Istanbul.
Treasury designated ten nodes of an Iranian missile and drone procurement network on 29 September. It named KavoshCom Asia R and D Group of Tehran at the centre. Three companies sharing the Cavalier Dynamics name are incorporated in Riyadh, Islamabad and Istanbul.
The State Department designated thirteen more the same day and posted up to $15m through Rewards for Justice.
The Senate rejected House Concurrent Resolution 89 by 49 votes to 50 on 24 September, one short of ordering American forces out of hostilities with Iran. Thom Tillis backed an Iran war powers measure for the first time.
United States×3The Senate rejected House Concurrent Resolution 89 by 49 votes to 50 on 24 September, one vote short of ordering American forces out of hostilities with Iran. Rand Paul, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Thom Tillis crossed.
Tillis backed an Iran war powers measure for the first time, citing economic cost and voter opposition. A concurrent resolution never reaches the President, so the count measures opinion.
Iran hanged Ali Hemmati, 21, and Majid Nikandish, 25, in Mashhad on the morning of 30 September and announced it through Mizan, the judiciary's own news outlet. The Supreme Court had confirmed both death sentences first.
IranIran hanged Ali Hemmati, 21, and Majid Nikandish, 25, in Mashhad on the morning of 30 September. Mizan, the judiciary's own news outlet, announced it, and the Supreme Court had confirmed both sentences first.
The state says both men joined the unrest of 8 January in the Tabarsi district, in which four security personnel died. No independent body has tested that account.
The Pentagon added Captain Bianca Wilkerson to its published death toll on 23 September, taking it to 19. The Intercept put the official tally at 880 dead or wounded five days later, and above 900 once names missing from the page are added.
United States×4United KingdomThe Pentagon added Captain Bianca Wilkerson to its published death toll on 23 September, taking it to 19. The Intercept put the official tally at 880 dead or wounded five days later, and above 900 once missing names are added.
Of the 880, 436 fell before 7 July and 444 since. The published series was split at that date in August.
Three sanctioned tankers interdicted by American naval forces were weeks from United States ports on 25 September, carrying close to 6 million barrels of crude Washington says is Iranian. The Justice Department has begun forfeiture proceedings against the Majestic X and the Tifani.
United StatesThree tankers seized by American naval forces were weeks from United States ports on 25 September. They carry close to 6 million barrels of crude Washington says is Iranian, worth about $600m. The Justice Department has begun forfeiture proceedings against the Majestic X and the Tifani.
Iranian crude has been barred from America for decades. The cargo cannot be landed and sold unless the forfeiture succeeds.
Two torpedoes struck the bulk carrier Cape Dao on 23 September about 25 nautical miles off Oman's Musandam Governorate. One hit the accommodation block and killed Suraj Yadav, a wiper from Uttar Pradesh and the most junior rating aboard.
Two torpedoes struck the bulk carrier Cape Dao on 23 September about 25 nautical miles off Oman's Musandam Governorate. One hit the accommodation block and killed Suraj Yadav, a wiper from Uttar Pradesh and the most junior rating aboard.
The Royal Navy of Oman took off survivors from a complement of 28, including 19 of the 20 Indian crew. No party has claimed the attack.
A projectile hit the Kuwaiti supertanker Al Funtas on the evening of 28 September while it sailed dark. The tanker filed no report, and the Royal Navy-run desk that merchant ships warn each other through learned of the strike late and from a third party.
United KingdomUnited StatesIranA projectile hit the Kuwaiti supertanker Al Funtas on the evening of 28 September while it sailed dark. The tanker filed no report, and the Royal Navy-run reporting desk learned of the strike late and through a third party. Three more tankers were struck on 29 September.
One was an engine-room explosion north of Dubai with 24 people aboard, claimed by Iran's Revolutionary Guard. Lloyd's List now counts 81 incidents.
Iran General Licence DD expired on 23 September with no successor, ending standing permission for overflight payments, bunkering and emergency ship repairs. A fourth authority, covering aircraft safety, was left off its list and lost cover on 8 September with no transition at all.
Iran General Licence DD expired on 23 September with no successor, ending standing permission for overflight payments, bunkering and emergency ship repairs. A fourth authority, covering aircraft safety, was left off its list and lost cover on 8 September with no transition at all.
No announcement is required when a licence lapses, and the Office of Foreign Assets Control made none. The newest Iran licence on its live list dates from 24 August.
The Office of Foreign Assets Control put the full texts of General Licence X and its revoking instrument into the Federal Register on 30 September. The June licence had briefly let Iranian crude be produced, sold and shipped by blacklisted tankers.
The Office of Foreign Assets Control published the full texts of General Licence X and General Licence X1 on 30 September. Both had stopped mattering six weeks earlier. The June licence had briefly let Iranian crude be produced, sold and shipped by blacklisted tankers.
Treasury also wrote Executive Order 13902 into the rulebook the same day, six years after signature, effective at once.
Iran loaded no crude at all in the Gulf during September, the first blank month of the blockade. Kharg Island had shipped 1.8 million barrels a day in March and 250,000 in August.
United StatesIran loaded no crude at all in The Gulf during September, the first blank month of the blockade. Kharg Island had shipped 1.8 million barrels a day in March, 890,000 in July and 250,000 in August. Satellite imagery caught no supertanker loading there for a fortnight to mid-September.
About 86 million barrels sit in floating storage, some 23 million trapped inside The Gulf.
Hiring a supertanker to carry Saudi crude to China passed $1.2 million a day for the first time on record in the week to 25 September, a 43 per cent rise in fifteen days. Brent November futures went the other way, from $107.35 a barrel to $97.68 in two days.
QatarUnited StatesIndiaHiring a supertanker from Ras Tanura to Ningbo passed $1.2 million a day in the week to 25 September, a record. The rate rose 43 per cent in fifteen days. Brent November futures went the other way, from $107.35 a barrel on 28 September to $97.68 two days later.
The refiner pays the freight, so the cost lands at the pump. American retail diesel averaged $6.382 a gallon.
Saudi Aramco restarted the East-West Crude Oil Pipeline on 22 September, twelve days after drones hit its pump stations. Flows are rebuilding towards about 4 million barrels a day, against the 5.5 million the line carried before the attack and a design capacity of 7 million.
United StatesSaudi Aramco restarted the East-West Crude Oil Pipeline on 22 September, twelve days after drones hit its pump stations. Flows are rebuilding towards about 4 million barrels a day, against 5.5 million before the attack and a design capacity of 7 million.
While the line was down, Ras Tanura loadings ran at 6.5 million barrels a day against 1.5 million in early September.
QatarEnergy told Pakistan, Bangladesh and an Indian buyer that liquefied natural gas cargo cancellations run through November, and Italy's Edison that deliveries stay suspended into early December. At least four loaded Qatar-linked carriers crossed Hormuz in the same fortnight.
United Arab EmiratesFranceQatarEnergy extended Force majeure in the week to 28 September, telling Pakistan, Bangladesh and an Indian buyer that gas cargo cancellations run through November. Italy's Edison was told its deliveries stay suspended into early December.
At least four loaded Qatar-linked carriers crossed Hormuz with Ras Laffan cargoes in late September, against none visible in August. The ships moved and the contracts did not.
Tehran dealers exchanged more than 2.5 million rials to the dollar on 29 September, an open-market quote rather than a central bank rate. The previous record, 2.2 million, was set on 2 September.
United StatesTehran dealers exchanged more than 2.5 million rials to the dollar on 29 September, an open-market quote rather than a central bank rate. The previous record, 2.2 million rials, was set on 2 September.
The currency lost about an eighth of its dollar value in 27 days. Imported food and medicine move further out of reach for anyone paid in rials.
Flat to de-escalatory in executed terms. The United States gave up its land basing adjacent to Iran, held its carrier force at two rather than three, and transmitted a written answer through Qatar. Against that, four tankers were struck over 28 and 29 September 2026 and Lloyd's List's incident count reached 81, so the sea war intensified while the land posture contracted.
