5 updates · 158 entities · 37 days active
The Republican map gain is locked before November; the courts, not campaigns, now decide what shifts.
Alabama is tabulating four congressional primaries today whose results will be legally void after SCOTUS cleared a new post-Callais map last Tuesday. Tennessee's signed map and Virginia's 4-3 court strike-down close the Republican harvest while every Democratic counter-track for 2026 fails. The 9th Circuit hears Oregon today; Florida and Texas decide within weeks.
Read full update →Three Supreme Court actions in nine days plus Florida's signed 24R-4D map have banked roughly ten to fifteen Republican House seats before any vote is cast. The Callais ruling on 29 April removed the Voting Rights Act mandate to draw majority-minority districts, with immediate effect ordered on 5 May. The Democratic generic ballot held at D+5.9.
Read full update →Virginia voters approved mid-decade redistricting 50.7-49.3% on Tuesday 21 April; a state judge nullified the result the next day. The Virginia Supreme Court has 28 days to rule before the 25 May filing deadline decides for it. Both parties' election-machinery programmes now run on external calendars they do not control.
Read full update →Cook Political Report shifted four Senate races toward Democrats on 13 April, the same week the Bureau of Economic Analysis recorded a Q1 contraction of 0.3 percent, translating the tariff polling pain of the last briefing into measurable macro data.
Read full update →Georgia's 14th District swung 25 points toward Democrats on 7 April, the same night Wisconsin's Supreme Court race delivered a 20-point liberal landslide that flipped 29 Trump counties. Both results exceed the D+5.5 generic ballot prediction.
Read full update →
