Riyadh

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, based in Riyadh, personally warned Washington on 2 August that Gulf States would bear the brunt of any retaliation if a planned strike on Iran went ahead. Trump called the operation off within hours, with Qatar and the UAE adding their own requests.

Ynetnews reported the same day that Gulf capitals split over the intervention, with some officials wanting the strike to proceed while the window was open; Riyadh has not confirmed the split on the record, and had already spent late July building its own maritime security arrangements rather than waiting on American cover.

Drones launched from Iraqi territory targeted Riyadh and Eastern Province oil facilities on 27 July, and Saudi air defences intercepted them without loss.

Three days later Riyadh hosted the founding of a 43-nation naval Coalition, making the Saudi capital its diplomatic seat rather than a mere port state, with Oman and the UAE staying out. The Coalition followed Saudi strikes ordered from Riyadh on Houthi positions near Hodeidah on 24 July, after the group widened its own targeting to Aramco-linked sites at Jazan and Yanbu.

OPEC+ approved a fourth consecutive 188,000 barrel-a-day increase for August on 5 July, with no move to accelerate the unwind, even as Riyadh's fiscal breakeven of $108-111 a barrel sits far above Brent's price.

The gap has widened sharply since a $123 peak in April; by 2 July Brent had slid to $70-72, a three-month low. Riyadh keeps choosing collective discipline over a unilateral lift, betting that holding the group together outweighs the revenue it forgoes at every hike vote.