On Day 46, the commander of US Central Command declared the Iran blockade had 'completely halted' seaborne trade in 36 hours. Kpler confirmed at least eight ships crossed Hormuz on Day 2, two of them US-sanctioned Chinese tankers, transiting under the carve-out CENTCOM wrote for itself. The over-claim has reached principal level while Paris and London schedule a 40-nation leaders' conference for Friday to plan the post-war Hormuz architecture no signed American instrument has ever framed.
Cooper's 'completely halted' claim extended the instrument gap from Trump's feed to the commanding admiral's lectern, while Europe drafts the Hormuz framework Washington never wrote.
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United StatesCanadaQatarCENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper told reporters on 15 April that US forces had 'completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea.' Kpler and LSEG tracking logged at least 8 ships crossing Hormuz on Day 2, including US-sanctioned tankers Rich Starry and Elpis. Pre-war baseline: 135 transits per day.
CENTCOM's order excludes ships not bound for Iranian ports, so sanctioned tankers moved freely. On Day 3, Rich Starry was turned back, the first confirmed reversal.
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Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer will chair a 17 April video conference of over 40 nations to design a 'purely defensive multilateral mission' for the strait of Hormuz. A preparatory diplomat call takes place on 16 April.
The US blockade runs on a Truth Social post with no signed presidential instrument on record. In international maritime law, the first credible multilateral framework tends to set the baseline all future proposals negotiate against. Europe is 2 days from tabling that document.
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Israeli Ambassador Yechiel Leiter and Lebanese Ambassador Nada Hamadeh Moawad at the State Department on 14 April, the first high-level Israel-Lebanon engagement since 1993. The meeting proceeded despite Hezbollah's Naim Qassem demanding cancellation 2 days prior.
The readout insisted any deal 'must be brokered by the United States, and not through any separate track.' Washington claimed the Lebanon pen the same day France and the UK convened 40 nations to draft the Hormuz framework.
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IsraelSaudi Arabia is pressing Washington through Arab officials to end the Hormuz blockade, fearing Iran will direct the Houthis to close Bab al-Mandeb. Gulf states want the US as 'guarantor of maritime security, not as a disruptor.'
Riyadh's Petroline bypass runs at 7 million barrels per day, but it ends at Yanbu on the Red Sea. A Houthi move at Bab al-Mandeb eliminates the bypass in 1 decision. CSIS analyst Mona Yacoubian calls current Houthi restraint 'strategic patience, not avoidance.'
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NetherlandsKremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed on 13 April that Russia's offer to take Iran's enriched uranium 'still stands but has not been acted upon.' Rosatom chief Alexei Likhachev tabled 3 options: transfer to Russia and dilute, deliver natural uranium equivalent, or pay financial value.
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared nuclear weapons 'not a matter for negotiation' on 14 April. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed Iran cannot enrich at any site. The off-ramp sits open; both sides walk past.
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Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun called the US Hormuz blockade 'dangerous and irresponsible' on 13 April and repeated the language on 14 April. Between those 2 statements, US-sanctioned Chinese tankers Rich Starry and Elpis transited Hormuz under CENTCOM's non-Iranian-port carve-out.
Beijing sources roughly 15% of its annual crude from Iran via dark-fleet routes. Loud condemnation in public, quiet commercial transit through the operational gap in private: the dual posture holds only while CENTCOM's carve-out stays in place.
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PhilippinesSix senators joined the War Powers Resolution on 13 April, including Jeff Merkley, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Mark Kelly, taking co-sponsors to 13. The earliest floor vote falls around 23 April. Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins have criticised Trump's rhetoric but have not crossed.
The 47-53 failure pattern from 3 prior Senate WPR votes is the base case. The vote lands the same week as the OFAC GL-U lapse on 19 April and the ceasefire window closing on 22 April.
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United KingdomBrent closed at $94.79 on 14 April, down from the $103 blockade-day peak but roughly 40% above the $67.41 pre-war baseline. The price reflects partial enforcement: ships bound for Iranian ports blocked, non-Iranian-port traffic free.
OFAC's GL-U general licence expires on 19 April; non-renewal removes legal cover for 325 tankers and could spike Brent by $10-15 (Rystad Energy estimate). A credible Hormuz framework from the Macron-Starmer summit on 17 April could pull prices back toward the mid-eighties.
Horizontal escalation risk rises through the week. Saudi Arabia's formal pressure plus Qassem's drone salvo plus Hezbollah's continued rocket fire plus Houthi restraint that CSIS and Elisabeth Kendall characterise as strategic patience describe an equilibrium that holds only while the blockade remains leaky. The blockade is currently leaky: sanctioned tankers are transiting, legitimate shipping is anchored. If GL-U lapses without a successor on 19 April and CENTCOM extends interdictions to non-Iranian-port traffic, the Bab el-Mandeb trigger moves from hypothesis to scenario. Markets have not priced the dual-chokepoint case; Brent at $94.79 reflects partial enforcement, not dual closure.
