Israel

Israel launched Operation Epic Fury alongside the United States on 28 February 2026, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and systematically targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure, IRGC command, and civilian energy systems. A Joint US-Israeli Target List of Iranian officials approved for killing was confirmed by the Wall Street Journal, revealing the depth of operational coordination between Jerusalem and Washington. Israel simultaneously opened a ground offensive in Lebanon, with Defence Minister Katz declaring the IDF would seize and hold all territory south of the Litani River. The Lebanon death toll reached over 1,000 killed (including 118 children) by late March, with more than one million displaced; a single ten-minute strike on 8 April killed 254 people in central Beirut and surrounding areas.

Israel's war aims have diverged from Washington's from the outset and that divergence hardened through April. Netanyahu declared "revolutions do not happen from the air" and referenced ground options. A Yellow Line dispute over Lebanon withdrawal terms — Netanyahu demanding IDF presence in a buffer zone up to the Litani and refusing to concede it — threatened to bleed the Lebanon Ceasefire into the Iran clock. On 23 April, Trump extended the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire by three weeks to approximately 15-16 May following the second round of direct ambassador-level Washington talks, removing Lebanon as a separate near-term deadline. Netanyahu reportedly learned of the announcement from the press rather than from Washington before it was made, the second documented friction of that kind.

Israel sits at the centre of three interlocking strategic questions that extend well beyond the Middle East: whether air power alone can achieve political transformation in a hostile state; whether US and Israeli war aims can be reconciled once Iran's military capacity is degraded but its political structure survives; and whether interdicting the Russia-Iran logistics corridor produces durable benefits for Ukraine or merely temporary disruption. Arrow-3 interceptor stocks reached 81% depletion by early April, exposing the limits of Israel's missile defence architecture and creating dependency on US replenishment on a timeline measured in years, not months.