Hamas

Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist movement founded in 1987 as an offshoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, has governed the Gaza Strip since 2007 through its military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades. Its political bureau relocated to Doha, Qatar in 2012, making Qatar the primary diplomatic interlocutor for Ceasefire negotiations. A US-brokered Gaza Ceasefire has held since 10 October 2025, but its second phase, announced in January 2026, has stalled for months: Israel retains military control of more than half of Gaza's territory, and Hamas's refusal to disarm, a core Ceasefire condition, remains the central blockage. The Palestinian death toll since the 7 October 2023 attacks, which killed approximately 1,200 Israelis and took roughly 250 hostages, has passed 72,775, and Israeli bombardment of Gaza intensified sharply once Iran's own Ceasefire with Israel took hold in April 2026, as Israeli forces redirected military pressure back onto the territory.

As the 2026 Iran conflict escalated, Hamas came under acute cross-pressure. Iran has been Hamas's principal weapons supplier, channelling funds and arms through the IRGC Quds Force network since at least 2006. In March 2026, Hamas publicly called on Tehran to "avoid targeting neighbouring countries" — the first open break with Iran since 2012. The move reflected Qatari pressure: Qatar was absorbing Iranian Ballistic missile strikes on Ras Laffan, and Doha's leverage over Hamas — as both political host and humanitarian funder — crossed a threshold. Israel simultaneously killed a Hamas official in a Tripoli refugee camp, signalling it targets Hamas personnel outside Gaza regardless of the movement's stance on the Iran conflict.

The rupture carries structural costs. Iranian arms have sustained the Qassam Brigades through nearly three years of Israeli military pressure; a durable break with Tehran would force Hamas to find alternative suppliers at a time when its military capability is significantly degraded. Qatar's continued role as Ceasefire interlocutor — and Hamas's dependence on that patronage — makes public alignment with Iran's Gulf strikes untenable, but Tehran's proven willingness to strike Doha infrastructure means the protective canopy Hamas relied upon may itself be compromised. Hamas's positioning on the Iran conflict does not improve humanitarian conditions in Gaza, which remain catastrophic independently of the wider regional war.