Israel

Israel launched Operation Epic Fury alongside the United States on 28 February 2026, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and systematically targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure, IRGC command, and civilian energy systems. A Joint US-Israeli Target List of Iranian officials approved for killing was confirmed by the Wall Street Journal, revealing the depth of operational coordination between Jerusalem and Washington. Israel simultaneously opened a ground offensive in Lebanon, with Defence Minister Katz declaring the IDF would seize and hold all territory south of the Litani River. The Lebanon death toll reached over 1,000 killed (including 118 children) by late March, with more than one million displaced; a single ten-minute strike on 8 April killed 254 people in central Beirut.

Israel's war aims have diverged from Washington's from the outset and that divergence hardened through April. Netanyahu declared revolutions do not happen from the air and referenced ground options. Arrow-3 interceptor stocks reached 81% depletion by early April, creating dependency on US replenishment on a timeline measured in years, not months. Trump extended the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire by three weeks in late April following ambassador-level Washington talks.

By mid-May 2026, the 'joint US-Israeli surprise' framing that organised public coverage since Day 1 sits awkwardly against a prepared forward-basing infrastructure. The New York Times and Wall Street Journal reported on 18 May that Israel operated two covert military bases in Iraq's western desert since late 2024, 14 months before the 28 February strike. One sits near Najaf and Karbala, roughly 100 kilometres south-west of Baghdad. Their functions: special-forces housing, an air-operations logistics hub, and search-and-rescue staging for downed pilots. The WSJ added that one base operated with the knowledge of the United States; US officials denied direct involvement. Iraq publicly denied authorising any foreign military presence; Iraqi officials privately protested to Washington in late March 2026, six weeks before the disclosure.

The Haaretz assessment published 18 May (citing a former senior Israeli military intelligence official) judged that the strikes did not destroy Iran's underground enrichment infrastructure or missile production lines. The same source warned Tehran may now conclude only nuclear weapons can deter future conflict with Israel and the United States. On 1 June 2026, Trump phoned Netanyahu in an expletive-laden call and halted Israel's planned strikes on Beirut, marking the first documented Israeli military reversal under US pressure in 95 days. A partial Lebanon Ceasefire followed, under which Hezbollah pledged to stop attacking Israel. Netanyahu confirmed Israeli ground operations would continue toward the Zaharani river and contradicted Trump's claim that troops had turned around.

By 19 June 2026, Israel's position inside the Islamabad MOU framework remained contested. Netanyahu was excluded from the diplomacy that produced the MOU; Mediation ran through Qatar, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Israel reads the MOU clause requiring it to "terminate its war in Lebanon" as imposing no withdrawal obligation; IDF strikes killed 58 people on 18 June and 28 on 19 June as Washington-brokered Ceasefire talks continued. On 19 June, Hezbollah killed four IDF soldiers near the Litani River, the deadliest attack on Israeli forces since the MOU signing. National Security Minister Ben-Gvir responded by demanding "all of Lebanon must burn", publicly rejecting the diplomatic track in defiance of the coalition's own stated course.

The front reignited on 2 July when troops of the IDF's 679th 'Yiftah' Armoured Brigade clashed with a Hezbollah gunman at Bint Jbeil in south Lebanon, drawing tank shelling and airstrikes and leaving one soldier seriously wounded. The same week, Defence Minister Katz called Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei 'a dead man', extending Israel's assassination-target doctrine to the post-succession leadership and drawing an Iranian warning of an 'immediate and powerful response'.