Bahrain

Bahrain's own reporting put its Patriot PAC-3 stock at roughly 87 per cent depleted by 3 June, after intercepting 198 projectiles since the war began; Manama was Left off Washington's emergency resupply list that covered Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE and Israel . Two days later an IRGC salvo of seven ballistic missiles hit US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain simultaneously, the largest two-country launch of the war, drawing the stock down further .

The pressure has not eased since. On 19 July Bahrain said it had thwarted a fresh missile wave, evidence that Iran's Operation Saeqeh, which by mid-July Tehran was describing as its 14th and 15th phases, had widened to include Bahrain alongside Kuwait and Jordan .

On 12 May Bahrain signed the Multinational Military Mission for the Strait of Hormuz alongside Qatar, the first time either state had put its name to a Western coalition paper of this kind . The move came days after Bahraini authorities arrested 41 people accused of IRGC recruitment, the kingdom's largest single such detention, as Iran threatened wider Gulf shipping in response .

For Bahrain the calculation is straightforward: hosting the Fifth Fleet draws Iranian fire, so it joins whatever Coalition promises to share the cost of defending the strait its own waters sit beside.

Bahrain was a first-week target of the war precisely because of what it hosts: Iran struck the US Fifth Fleet headquarters at Naval Support Activity Bahrain on 4 March, the opening blow against the kingdom . Satellite analysis published the following day confirmed visible damage at the base, removing any doubt over whether the strike had connected .

The headquarters was struck again later in the war, underlining that for Iran the Fifth Fleet's presence, not any Bahraini action of its own, is what keeps the kingdom in the target set.