Election officials can again run bulk citizenship checks on voter rolls after a 6-3 Supreme Court stay on 25 September, but the rule on voter-roll removals before an election waits for a case argued on 8 December. The same day the Court kept Missouri on its 2022 map. Two raters moved 26 House ratings towards Democrats, while TEXAS PAC filed $61.4 million in a single report.
Courts let DHS run its citizenship checks but blocked the federal levers built to make states use them.
The Supreme Court let DHS restore its expanded SAVE citizenship-check system by 6-3 on 25 September, but left the fight over pre-election voter removals to a December hearing.
the Supreme Court voted 6-3 on 25 September to let the Department of Homeland Security restart its expanded citizenship-check database. Election offices can again search it against Social Security records in bulk.
The ruling has limits before 3 November. A federal law bars systematic roll cleaning in the last 90 days, so states can only check voters one by one. The justices will hear that question on 8 December.
The Supreme Court stayed the 8th Circuit on 25 September and barred lower courts from forcing Missouri onto its 2025 map, so overseas ballots already mailed on the old lines stand.
Missouri will elect its eight House members on its 2022 map on 3 November. the Supreme Court stayed the 8th Circuit's order for the 2025 map on 25 September, with no noted dissent.
The justices wrote that the election had already started, with overseas ballots in the post since 18 September. They also blamed Secretary of State Denny Hoskins for running the August primary on the newer map.
Cook Political Report moved 15 House races towards Democrats on 25 September and none towards Republicans, flipping its lean-or-better count to a Democratic lead.
Cook Political Report shifted 15 House races towards Democrats on 25 September and none towards Republicans. Its map now shows 208 seats at least leaning Democratic against 205 leaning Republican.
That is the first time in Lowdown's tracking that Cook's Democratic column has led. Republicans hold 17 of its 22 toss-ups, so they must win most close races to keep the House.
Judge Amir Ali struck down FEMA's rule tying a fifth of states' counterterrorism grants to SAVE checks, ballot audits and a move off voting machines.
United StatesJudge Amir Ali struck down election conditions that the Federal Emergency Management Agency put on counterterrorism grants on 28 September. States would have lost a fifth of their grant unless they used a federal citizenship-check database, hand-audited 5% of paper ballots and moved away from voting machines.
The ruling landed three days after the Supreme Court revived that database. States may now use the system, but Washington cannot make grant money depend on it.
Texas PAC reported $61.4 million of new spending against James Talarico and for Ken Paxton on 30 September, nearly doubling its race total in nine days.
TEXAS PAC, a Super PAC (political action committee), has now reported $131.5 million of spending in the Texas Senate race. Its 30 September notice to the FEC (Federal Election Commission) added $61.4 million in one filing, almost doubling its total from 21 September.
Republican-side groups have filed about $71.4 million since 24 September, against $9.6 million for Democrat James Talarico's side. TEXAS PAC's donors stay hidden until its first full report on 15 October.
Judge Victoria Marie Calvert threw out the Justice Department's demand for Georgia's unredacted voter list on 30 September, holding that a 1960 civil-rights law does not override the state's privacy rules.
Judge Victoria Marie Calvert threw out the Justice Department's demand for Georgia's full voter list on 30 September. She ruled that a 1960 civil rights law does not override Georgia's privacy law on dates of birth and Social Security numbers.
The department cannot amend and refile in her court. Democracy Docket counts it as the department's 26th straight loss in its voter-list suits.
Outside groups filed $44.1 million in Ohio's Senate race between 24 and 30 September, led by Defend American Jobs, which the Washington Times ties to the crypto industry's Fairshake network.
United StatesOutside groups reported $44.1 million of spending in Ohio's Senate race between 24 and 30 September. Defend American Jobs led with $11.46 million, almost all of it split evenly between backing Senator Jon Husted and attacking Democrat Sherrod Brown.
The Washington Times links Defend American Jobs to the crypto industry's Fairshake network. In 2024 it spent heavily against Brown when he lost his seat, and its new adverts do not mention crypto.
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved 11 House races towards Democrats on 29 September, including three Virginia seats and a Missouri district reshaped by the Supreme Court's map order.
Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted 11 House races towards Democrats on 29 September. It now rates 213 seats at least leaning Democratic, five short of a majority, and 202 leaning Republican.
Three of the moves are in Virginia, where early voting began on 18 September. Missouri's 2nd District also tightened after the Supreme Court kept the state's 2022 map, giving Republican Ann Wagner a less safe seat.
California's Supreme Court ruled 7-0 that Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco unlawfully seized about 650,000 ballots from the Proposition 50 election and must return them.
California's Supreme Court ruled 7-0 on 24 September that Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco broke the law by seizing about 650,000 ballots. It ordered him to give them back to the county's election office.
Those ballots decided Proposition 50, which set California's current House map. The ruling ends a police inquiry into that vote about six weeks before the first House election on those lines.
North Carolina published a new figure from DHS's expanded SAVE system: over 35,000 deceased registrants, and no count of non-citizens.
North Carolina published a new figure from the federal government's expanded citizenship-check database on 25 September. Sam Hayes, who runs the State Board of Elections, said a recent search found over 35,000 dead people still registered.
He gave no count of non-citizens and did not say any of the dead had voted. Hayes also said no one would be removed automatically.
The Pentagon's voting office removed the box for citizens who have never lived in the United States from two federal overseas voting forms in late August, NPR reported.
The Pentagon's Federal Voting Assistance Program removed a checkbox from two overseas voting forms in late August. The box, used since 2013, let US citizens who have never lived in the United States register.
National Public Radio reported the change on 30 September, weeks after states began sending overseas ballots. The Pentagon says states can still accept older versions of the forms that carry the required details.
American Oversight sued DHS on 30 September for the records behind Secretary Markwayne Mullin's claim of 250,000 non-citizens on voter rolls, a day after CREW filed a similar suit.
American Oversight sued the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) on 30 September for the records behind Secretary Markwayne Mullin's July claim of 250,000 non-citizens on voter rolls. A second watchdog, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, filed a similar suit a day earlier.
Mullin's figure named California, New Jersey, Nevada and Pennsylvania. American Oversight says the claim rested on commercial databases, and DHS has released none of the underlying records.
Nine Republican-side committees filed $164 million of the week's 300 largest outside-spending lines with the FEC, against $47 million from four Democratic-side ones.
Outside groups reported at least $259.2 million of election spending to the FEC (Federal Election Commission) between 24 and 30 September. That is Lowdown's count of the 300 largest filings. Republican-side committees filed $164 million of it.
Senate races took the nine biggest slots, and Texas alone took 31%. The first House race on the list, North Carolina's 1st District, came tenth at $3.49 million.
A federal judge dismissed Florida Rising Together's challenge to the state's exact-match registration rule on standing, leaving it in force for 3 November.
A federal judge in Orlando dismissed Florida Rising Together's challenge to the state's exact-match registration rule on 29 September. the Court found the group had not shown standing to sue, and gave it until 15 October to file again.
The rule stays in force for 3 November. Cook Political Report moved Florida's governor's race from Likely to Lean Republican on 1 October.
Judge Mary Geiger Lewis dismissed a challenge to South Carolina's limits on helping voters with disabilities, finding the plaintiffs lacked standing.
Judge Mary Geiger Lewis dismissed a challenge to South Carolina's limits on helping voters on 30 September. A state civil rights group and three disabled voters had challenged rules including a cap of five voters per helper.
Judge Lewis found the plaintiffs had no standing and dismissed without prejudice, so they may sue again. The limits apply for the 3 November Senate election.
Sideways on the rules, up on the money. For 3 November the Supreme Court has fixed Missouri on its 2022 map and, on Justice Jackson's reading, limited SAVE to individual checks inside the NVRA quiet period. The next shift in rules comes from Chad Bianco's promised federal appeal and from Mi Familia Vota on 8 December, both of which bear mainly on what follows polling day. On money, the tipping points are dated: TEXAS PAC's first periodic report on 15 October names the donors behind $131.5 million, and the NRSC's October Monthly on 20 October shows whether it rebuilt the $18.7 million cash it held at the end of August.
