Sabato's Crystal Ball
University of Virginia election forecaster; moved Texas Senate and six House seats in May 2026.
Sabato's Crystal Ball, Cook Political Report and Inside Elections have moved House and Senate ratings toward Democrats in every update since Trump's economic approval collapsed to 31-35% in late March 2026, with no forecaster reversing a single seat back toward Republicans through July.
Last refreshed: 4 August 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic
Has any 2026 forecaster moved a seat back toward Republicans since April?
Timeline for Sabato's Crystal Ball
Mentioned in: Michigan votes with the establishment behind
US Midterms 2026Published the three gubernatorial rating changes
US Midterms 2026: Sabato moves three races for governorMentioned in: Two Dan Sullivans, one Alaska toss-up
US Midterms 2026Mentioned in: Letlow routs Fleming by 13.6 points
US Midterms 2026Mentioned in: Cook moves seven seats, none back
US Midterms 2026Background
Sabato's Crystal Ball is the elections-forecasting publication of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, founded by political scientist Larry Sabato. It rates congressional, Senate and gubernatorial races on a six-point scale from SAFE Republican to SAFE Democrat and operates alongside Cook Political Report and Inside Elections as one of the three main independent forecasters used by candidates, donors and media to identify competitive races.
A shift from Likely to Leans in any of the three services typically triggers increased outside spending in the affected district within two to three weeks, which is why convergence across all three forecasters, rather than any single rating change, carries the greater signal.
Ratings drift toward Democrats since March
The Crystal Ball's early April shift, moving eight Democratic seats to SAFE and Ohio's 1st and 13th districts toward Democrats, followed Trump's economic approval collapsing to 31-35% across multiple pollsters in late March 2026.
On 27 May it moved Texas's Senate seat and TX-35 to Leans Republican and six further House seats toward Democrats, citing split-ticket evidence that Republican Senate candidates run behind Trump's own margin there; Cook Political Report and Inside Elections made parallel moves through June with no seat reversing toward Republicans.
