Sabato's Crystal Ball
University of Virginia election forecaster; moved Texas Senate and six House seats in May 2026.
Last refreshed: 1 July 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic
Has any 2026 forecaster moved a seat back toward Republicans since April?
Timeline for Sabato's Crystal Ball
Mentioned in: Two Dan Sullivans, one Alaska toss-up
US Midterms 2026Mentioned in: Letlow routs Fleming by 13.6 points
US Midterms 2026Mentioned in: Cook moves seven seats, none back
US Midterms 2026Mentioned in: NJ-7 moves to Toss-up as cash gap holds
US Midterms 2026Moved Texas Senate and TX-35 from Likely Republican to Leans Republican
US Midterms 2026: Texas Senate, TX-35 both slip to Leans RepublicanWhat races has Sabato Crystal Ball moved to Democrats in 2026?
How reliable is Sabato Crystal Ball for election predictions?
Who is Larry Sabato?
Background
In early April 2026, the Crystal Ball shifted eight Democratic House seats to SAFE and moved Ohio's 1st and 13th districts to Lean and Likely Democrat respectively, reflecting sharp generic ballot movement following Trump's tariff announcements.
On 27 May 2026, the Crystal Ball issued its most consequential dual move of the cycle: it shifted Texas Senate from Likely Republican to Leans Republican and moved TX-35 (the San Antonio district redrawn under PlanC2333) from Likely Republican to Leans Republican simultaneously. The TX-35 move was anchored in documented split-ticket vulnerability: Trump carried the district by ten points but Cruz won it by under four in Senate races, a gap that indicates Republican Senate candidates run below the presidential baseline there. The same day the Crystal Ball moved six additional House seats toward Democrats and assessed the overall House map as 'a bit redder, but not by enough to protect Republicans from a wave.'
That May reading was reinforced rather than reversed through June: Cook Political Report moved seven further House seats toward Democrats on 18 June with no seats moving the other way, and Inside Elections moved New Jersey's 7th District to Toss-up in early June. The convergence across all three major forecasters, each moving seats toward Democrats through the spring with none reversing, is treated as a stronger signal than any single rating change, and it has held into the summer without a single seat moving back toward Republicans since April.
Sabato's Crystal Ball is the elections-forecasting publication of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, founded by political scientist Larry Sabato. It rates congressional, Senate, and gubernatorial races on a six-point scale from SAFE Republican to SAFE Democrat, and its ratings are treated by candidates, donors, and media as a primary benchmark for competitive race identification. The Crystal Ball operates alongside Cook Political Report and Inside Elections as the three main independent forecasters; a shift from Likely to Leans typically triggers increased outside spending in a district within two to three weeks.
