The Democratic Senate committee ended August with $37.6m in cash to the Republicans' $18.7m, after trailing by $16.3m on 1 August. The reason: the NRSC spent $45.9m coordinating with its candidates in the month. Trump's new super PAC widened to 49 races, and a federal appeals court ordered Missouri back onto its 2025 map days after overseas ballots went out on the old one.
The NRSC spent early and heavily on Senate races the raters have since split on, moving for and against Republicans.
The NRSC spent $45.92m coordinating with Senate candidates in August and ended the month with $18.7m in cash, against the DSCC's $37.6m.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) ended August with $37.6m in the bank. The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) had just $18.7m, new Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings show.
Republicans spent 46 times more of a capped kind of party money than Democrats did. That gap could widen fast if the Supreme Court lifts the cap this year.
The super PAC tied to MAGA Inc reported $29.2m of new spending across 49 federal races between 16 and 22 September, more than doubling its total.
United StatesThe political action committee (PAC) No Going Back reported spending $29.2m across 49 congressional races. That is between 16 and 22 September, more than double its own $21m tally from ten days earlier.
Federal law forces groups like this to report large spends within 48 hours. It does not require them to name donors until a later filing.
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Michigan's Senate race to Leans Democratic on 22 September, citing a Suffolk poll with Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Mike Rogers 47-40.
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Michigan's Senate race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. It cited a Suffolk poll that gave Abdul El-Sayed a 47-40 lead over Mike Rogers.
El-Sayed has led by similar margins in the Democratic primary since the summer. The shift looks like a settling of an already stable race, not a late swing.
Texas PAC's latest FEC notice puts its Senate spending at $69.32m: $36.75m for Ken Paxton and $32.57m against James Talarico.
United StatesTEXAS PAC, a political action committee (PAC), filed its latest 48-hour notice putting total spending in the Texas Senate race at $69.32m as of 21 September. That splits between $36.75m for Ken Paxton and $32.57m against James Talarico.
The group has not named a single donor. It does not have to until its next Federal Election Commission (FEC) report is due on 15 October.
Sabato moved Iowa's open Senate seat to Toss-up as Marist put Democrat Josh Turek ahead of Ashley Hinson 50-42, the first poll to show him leading.
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Iowa's Senate race from Leans Republican to Toss-up on 22 September. A Marist Poll put Josh Turek ahead of Ashley Hinson 50-42 that same day.
It was the first poll all year to show the Democrat leading. Cook had rated the race Republican-favoured since June.
The NRCC coordinated $7.68m with House candidates in August, the DCCC $4.09m, and the Republican committee still ended the month ahead on cash, $89.1m to $75.9m.
The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) reported $7.68m of coordinated spending with candidates in August. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) spent $4.09m, as the NRCC kept a cash lead of $89.1m to $75.9m.
The Republican National Committee (RNC) and Democratic National Committee (DNC) reported no coordinated spending at all. That work is normally left to their House and Senate arms.
Cook moved Georgia's Senate race to Likely Democrat as a YouGov poll put Jon Ossoff ahead of Mike Collins 51-41, while the governor's race sits at 45-44.
Cook Political Report moved Georgia's Senate race from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat. A YouGov poll put Jon Ossoff at 51% against Mike Collins's 41%.
Georgia forces any statewide race below 50% into a runoff. A poll putting Ossoff above that line matters more here than elsewhere.
Elon Musk's America PAC filed $1.43m of direct mail on 22 September, dated for delivery through 16 October, with Michigan and Ohio taking the largest shares.
America PAC, a political action committee (PAC) Elon Musk funded heavily in 2024, filed to spend just over $1.4m on direct mail. Most of the money is aimed at Michigan and Ohio.
The mail is due to land in postboxes between 22 September and 16 October. Both states have close Senate races this year.
Cook shifted New Hampshire's Senate race from Lean Democrat to Toss Up on 15 September, calling Republican spending there a flashing red light for Democrats.
Cook Political Report moved New Hampshire's Senate race from Lean Democrat to Toss Up on 15 September. It pointed to Republican spending on John E. Sununu's campaign.
Sununu held the seat from 2003 to 2009 and is running for it again. He faces Democrat Chris Pappas as Jeanne Shaheen retires.
The 8th Circuit ordered Missouri onto its 2025 congressional map three days after the state mailed overseas ballots on the 2022 lines; the Supreme Court has until 28 September.
The 8th Circuit ordered Missouri on 21 September to use its 2025 map, HB 1, for November. It then paused its own order until 28 September.
Challengers asked the Supreme Court's Justice Brett Kavanaugh to step in. That came days after Missouri had already mailed overseas ballots using the older 2022 map.
Sabato and Cook moved Kansas and South Carolina's Senate races, four governor's races and two more House seats towards Democrats between 22 and 23 September.
Sabato's Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report moved a wide batch of races toward Democrats. These include Senate contests in Kansas and South Carolina, governor's races in four states, and three House seats.
Ratings moving together like this usually track a national mood shift, such as a generic congressional ballot average, rather than news from any single state.
The NAACP and eight other groups sued in Washington on 18 September to keep ICE away from polling places, the day NPR published a DHS email listing non-English voting areas.
United States×2The National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) and eight other groups sued the Trump administration on 18 September. They want to keep immigration agents away from polling places.
The suit came the same day National Public Radio (NPR) published a 2025 Homeland Security email. The groups say that email, obtained through a separate lawsuit, shows planning for this.
Harmeet Dhillon said the Justice Department will send about 1,000 election monitors in November; a day later a Seattle judge threw out its suit for Washington's voter rolls.
Harmeet Dhillon of the Justice Department's Civil Rights Division said on 22 September the department would send about 1,000 election monitors. They will go to Nevada, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.
The next day a judge dismissed the department's suit for Washington's voter rolls. The state's attorney general called that loss its 25th in a row.
Virginia, Minnesota, South Dakota and Idaho opened in-person early voting on 18 September, as Michigan and Wisconsin sent out postal ballots and Florida logged its first overseas returns.
United StatesEarly voting for November's election began on 18 September in Virginia, Minnesota, South Dakota and Idaho. Michigan started mailing ballots the next day.
Wisconsin clerks had to get absentee ballots into the post by 17 September. That was a week before the other states' voting even opened.
Montgomery County, Maryland, said voter guides for 11 precincts listed the wrong polling places and party details; replacements go out next week.
Montgomery County in Maryland said on 22 September that voter guides sent to 11 precincts had errors. They listed the wrong polling place and party details.
The county said it would mail replacement guides to the same 11 precincts. Those go out the following week, with the correct polling place and party information.
Sideways, pending two dated triggers. Missouri: if the Supreme Court has not acted on application 26A388 by 5pm CDT on 28 September, the 8th Circuit's stay lapses and the 2025 map governs a state that already mailed overseas ballots under the 2022 lines, forcing a decision on reissuing ballots inside a closed 45-day UOCAVA window. Money: the 20 October FEC Monthly will show whether the DSCC starts spending its $37.6m cash advantage or keeps banking it for the campaign's final two weeks, the choice that determines whether the current cash gap becomes an ad-spend gap.
