Skip to content
Welcome, thoughtbot's Giant Robots listeners!Start here
US Midterms 2026
1OCT

Justices keep Missouri on its 2022 map

3 min read
15:11UTC

The Supreme Court stayed the 8th Circuit on 25 September and barred lower courts from forcing Missouri onto its 2025 map, so overseas ballots already mailed on the old lines stand.

PoliticsAssessed
Key takeaway

Missouri's 2022 congressional map governs 3 November, and ballots already mailed on it stand.

The Supreme Court on 25 September stayed the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals' 21 September mandate and 22 September order in People Not Politicians v. Onder (application 26A388), with no noted dissent⁠1. A mandate is the formal order sending an appeal ruling back to the trial court. Lower courts "should not order or otherwise require Missouri to use the 2025 map in the 2026 congressional election", the Court wrote.

Missouri's 2022 map therefore governs 3 November. The overseas and military ballots the state began mailing on those lines on 18 September stand without reissue. The 2022 lines are expected to elect six Republicans and two Democrats; the 2025 map, House Bill 1, was drawn for seven and one.

This per curiam opinion, issued in the Court's name rather than a named justice's, is the first of its Missouri orders to give reasons. Its 10 September order had stayed a restraining order from Chief Judge Stephen R. Clark of the federal court in eastern Missouri, who had pointed the state at the 2025 map. The new opinion rejects the 8th Circuit's reading of the Purcell principle, the doctrine that warns federal courts off changing rules close to a vote. "The election is not merely upcoming; it has already started," the Court wrote.

The opinion puts the confusion at the door of Secretary of State Denny Hoskins, whom the state's own Supreme Court held in civil contempt on 10 September, a finding later purged. Citing Maggard v. State, a Missouri Supreme Court decision of May 2026, the Court wrote that Hoskins "was well aware that conducting the August primary election with the 2025 map carried significant risks". He ran the primary on House Bill 1 anyway.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Every ten years states redraw the districts that elect members of the US House of Representatives. Missouri's Republican legislature drew a new map in 2025, called HB 1, partly to win an extra seat. Opponents gathered signatures to put HB 1 to a public vote, and Missouri's courts paused it. The state's top election official ran the August primary on the new map anyway. A federal appeals court then ordered the new map for November. The US Supreme Court overruled that. Its rule, named after a 2006 case called Purcell, says courts should not change election rules once voting is close or under way. Missouri had already mailed ballots on the old 2022 map, so the old map stays.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Missouri passed HB 1 in 2025 as a mid-decade redraw, then a referendum petition and state-court rulings suspended it. Hoskins ran the August primary on HB 1 anyway. The Missouri Supreme Court later held him in civil contempt, later purged, for breaching its suspension order .

That left two maps with competing claims. HB 1 had a primary behind it, while the 2022 map had state-court backing and printed general-election ballots. Federal courts were asked to choose between them after the 19 September overseas ballot deadline had passed.

the Court's two earlier orders, including its 10 September stay of Chief Judge Clark's restraining order , had already signalled the answer. The 25 September opinion was the first to give reasons.

Escalation

Settled for 2026. The order bars lower courts from requiring the 2025 map in this election, which ends the federal route to HB 1 before 3 November. The state-court referendum fight over HB 1 continues for 2028.

What could happen next?
  • Precedent

    A state official who runs a primary on a contested map cannot rely on Purcell to keep that map for the general election.

  • Consequence

    Ann Wagner defends Missouri's 2nd District on its 2022 lines, which Sabato's Crystal Ball describes as a Trump +8 seat rather than the Trump +11 version in HB 1.

First Reported In

Update #19 · Bulk voter citizenship checks are back

Supreme Court of the United States· 1 Oct 2026
Read original →
Different Perspectives
Judge Mary Geiger Lewis, US District Court for the District of South Carolina
Judge Mary Geiger Lewis, US District Court for the District of South Carolina
Lewis dismissed on standing, without prejudice, the challenge by the South Carolina NAACP and three voters with disabilities to limits on who may help voters. The limits, including a cap of five voters per assistant, stand for the 3 November Senate election.
Judge Victoria Marie Calvert, US District Court for the Northern District of Georgia
Judge Victoria Marie Calvert, US District Court for the Northern District of Georgia
Calvert dismissed the Justice Department's suit for Georgia's unredacted voter list on 30 September, holding that the 1960 Civil Rights Act does not override state privacy law. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger need not hand over birth dates, Social Security numbers or licence numbers.
Chad Bianco, Riverside County Sheriff
Chad Bianco, Riverside County Sheriff
Bianco, ordered by the state supreme court on 24 September to return about 650,000 Proposition 50 ballots, called his seizure a lawful investigation. He told CalMatters he would appeal to the federal courts.
Fairshake network, through Defend American Jobs
Fairshake network, through Defend American Jobs
Fairshake, the crypto-industry super PAC, has said it will spend $30 million against Sherrod Brown, and Defend American Jobs, which the Washington Times places in its network, filed $11.46 million in Ohio. The Washington Times reports that the ads do not mention cryptocurrency.
Texas PAC
Texas PAC
The super PAC reported $61.41 million of new spending on 30 September, its two largest lines opposing James Talarico and supporting Ken Paxton. Its race total of $131.53 million is the largest outside effort in any Senate contest this week, with donors undisclosed until 15 October.
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Sabato moved three Virginia seats on 29 September, putting Jen Kiggans's 2nd District at Leans Democratic and the 1st at Toss-up. It wrote that a Democratic win in the 5th, now Leans Republican, would fit a 2006-style wave.