The Bank of Russia held its key rate at 14% on 11 September and named motor fuel prices in its inflation reasoning, the first time Ukraine's strike campaign has shown up in Russia's own official numbers rather than in Ukrainian claims. Novorossiysk shut for nine days in August and fuel imports hit a record 172,000 tonnes, while total Russian budget revenue still rose 9.2%.
Russia's fiscal pressure and Ukraine's own unverified claims both point the same way without proving it, while the Duma vote clears the path for a manpower decision neither side has confirmed.
The Bank of Russia held its key rate at 14% on 11 September and named motor fuel price rises as a driver of inflation. Annual inflation stood at 6.3% on 7 September.
Russia's central bank left borrowing costs at 14% on 11 September, with annual inflation at 6.3%. Its board listed motor fuel prices among the drivers of inflation, headline and underlying both.
Russian ministers have blamed seasonal demand all summer. The central bank instead logged the shortage in a monetary policy document. Russian firms now price it rather than argue about its cause.
Robert Brovdi, who commands Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, said on 12 September that his crews have struck 285 Russian oil tankers in ten weeks. His own monthly breakdown, 9 in July, 54 in August and 16 by 11 September, comes to 79.
Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, put the tanker tally at 285 on 12 September. The months he itemised, July, August and early September, add up to 79.
That leaves 206 strikes with no public accounting behind them. Analysts measured a real fall in loadings over the same weeks, which fits the direction without confirming the headline figure.
Oleh Ivashchenko, who heads Ukraine's military intelligence directorate GUR, told The Times on 10 September that Russian generals have asked Putin for 800,000 more troops once the Duma vote is out of the way.
Oleh Ivashchenko heads Ukraine's military intelligence. He told The Times on 10 September that Russian generals asked Vladimir Putin for 800,000 more troops after the Duma vote.
He put the ceiling on Russian intake at 300,000 to 500,000 recruits at once, so the request cannot land in one wave. The Institute for the Study of War separately expects rolling call-ups rather than mass mobilisation.
The Institute for the Study of War assessed on 12 September that Ukrainian forces have eliminated the Russian salient north of Lyman. Fighting now runs along the Zherebets River.
The Institute for the Study of War said on 12 September that Ukrainian forces have removed the Russian salient north of Lyman. Fighting has moved to the Zherebets River.
The salient had threatened to encircle the Donetsk fortress belt. Russian military bloggers conceded the ground, and no independent source has confirmed it, so the claim rests on one research group's reading.
The Moscow City Election Commission's federal ballot for the State Duma election of 18 to 20 September lists ten parties. Russia's Supreme Court cancelled Yabloko's federal candidate list on 10 August and dismissed its appeal a week later.
LatviaTen parties stand on the federal ballot for Russia's State Duma election of 18 to 20 September. Yabloko, the liberal party opposing the war since 2022, does not.
The Supreme Court cancelled its federal list on 10 August and rejected the appeal on 17 August. Local courts have since cut Yabloko's district candidates from 135 to 119.
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant lost its last remaining off-site line, the 330kV Ferosplavna-1, on 20 August, the 26th such loss since 2022. A seventh local ceasefire on 5 September let technicians repair it, and power returned around 8 September.
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant lost its last off-site power line on 20 August, the 26th such loss since 2022. Staff ran cooling on two diesel generators and stretched the fuel.
A seventh local ceasefire on 5 September let Ukrainian technicians demine the ground and repair the line. Power returned around 8 September, leaving Europe's largest nuclear site on a single connection again.
The Register of Damage for Ukraine opened its final four categories for individual claims on 8 September and its last three legal-entity categories on 10 September. Claims must concern damage inside Ukraine's internationally recognised borders since 24 February 2022.
The Register of Damage for Ukraine opened its last four individual claim categories on 8 September and three legal-entity categories on 10 September. Claims cover damage since 24 February 2022.
That completes the architecture The Register was built to hold. No compensation Commission exists yet to pay against it, so every claim filed waits on a body nobody has created.
The European Court of Human Rights will hold a chamber hearing on 22 September in an application brought by the Ukrainian Helsinki Human Rights Union for ten Ukrainian children. The application alleges that Russian nationality was imposed on them in Crimea.
The European Court of Human Rights hears an application on 22 September about ten Ukrainian children. The Ukrainian Helsinki Human Rights Union brought it.
It alleges that Russian nationality was imposed on the children in Crimea, that they were offered for adoption, and that their whereabouts are unknown. The court has made no finding, and the hearing exists to test the allegations.
US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Putin in Moscow on 5 September and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv on 6 September. Moscow announced no result from more than three hours of talks.
United StatesSteve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Vladimir Putin in Moscow on 5 September, then Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv the next day. Moscow announced nothing from more than three hours of talks.
Sergei Lavrov said on 12 September that Russia will negotiate without pausing military operations. Zelenskyy has offered to meet Putin at the Miami G20 summit in December.
Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada appointed Yevhen Khmara defence minister on 19 August by 312 votes to two, with no abstentions. Mykhailo Fedorov, sacked on 15 July, called on 18 August for a legal mechanism to hold wartime elections.
United KingdomUkraine's Parliament made Yevhen Khmara defence minister on 19 August by 312 votes to two, with no abstentions. He told deputies he stands before them as a civilian.
His sacked predecessor Mykhailo Fedorov called on 18 August for a legal way to hold elections during the war. A poll dated 5 August found 57% want them only after the fighting stops.
Zelenskyy told allies on 24 August that Ukraine faces a $27bn financing gap for the rest of 2026. The European Commission said on 2 September that a revenue law stuck in the Verkhovna Rada is one of twelve conditions for the next EUR 3.7bn payment.
Belgium×2Zelenskyy told allies on 24 August that Ukraine needs $27bn more for the rest of 2026. Brussels says a revenue law stuck in Parliament is one of twelve conditions for the next payment.
The gap has reopened the argument over 210 billion euros of frozen Russian assets. Ukraine wants custody moved from Belgium to the European Union, and 120 members of the European Parliament back reopening the question.
Russia's government announced on 29 August that its producer-binding ban on diesel, marine fuel and kerosene exports would run to 30 September. Alexander Novak said on 4 September that exports would reopen gradually, and named no date.
United KingdomRussia extended its ban on diesel, marine fuel and kerosene exports to 30 September, announcing it on 29 August. Alexander Novak said on 4 September that exports reopen gradually, without giving a date.
The quota study Novak ordered on 15 July has produced nothing public in eight weeks. Refiners deciding what to run this winter have no rule to plan against, only a ban renewed month by month.
Russia's Finance Ministry reported RUB 25.93tn of federal budget revenue for January to August, up 9.2% year on year. Oil and gas revenue fell 16.7% over the same period.
ChinaTürkiyeRussia's Finance Ministry booked 25.93 trillion roubles in federal revenue for January to August, a 9.2% annual rise. Oil and gas receipts fell 16.7%.
Non-oil taxes carried the increase, up 18.1%, and the National Wealth Fund is being drawn down to steady the books. The January to July deficit reached 6.46 trillion roubles, a third higher than a year earlier.
The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air counted 150 shadow tankers among 311 vessels that exported Russian crude and products in August. Cameroon overtook Russia's own registry as the fleet's largest flag of convenience.
Of 311 ships that carried Russian crude and products in August, 150 belonged to the shadow fleet. They moved 52% of Russia's seaborne oil and 61% of its crude.
Cameroon now flags more of those ships than Russia does, taking 83 registrations since June. Forty-five flew false flags at month end, and European navies boarded the sanctioned tanker Sun on 30 August.
A Pskov court sentenced Yabloko deputy chairman Lev Shlosberg to eleven years and one month on 17 August over his anti-war speech and posts. Russia did not invite election observers for a third consecutive national vote.
United StatesAustriaA court in Pskov jailed Lev Shlosberg, deputy chairman of Yabloko, for eleven years and one month on 17 August. The charges covered his anti-war speech and posts.
Europe's election-observation body said on 6 August that Russia never invited a mission and gave no real answer to its request. The vote of 18 to 20 September will be the third national ballot to go unobserved.
Ukraine's state railway Ukrzaliznytsia said a Russian strike hit a passenger locomotive in Volyn Oblast on 13 September, two kilometres from the Polish border, with the crew warned and no casualties. Four other items ran in the same round-up.
BelgiumUnited StatesUkraine's state railway Ukrzaliznytsia said a Russian strike hit a passenger locomotive in Volyn Oblast on 13 September, two kilometres from Poland. The crew had warning and escaped injury.
Mark Rutte put allied funding for US weapons for Ukraine above $10bn in a year on 8 September. Ukraine confirmed 103 servicemembers freed on 19 August, most of them wounded or ill.
Direction: up, on a delayed timeline. The specific mechanism is the 2026 Duma result, due to be certified after the 18-20 September vote; a rolling call-up announced once that result stands would convert Ivashchenko's unconfirmed 800,000 figure into a policy Russia would need active recruitment capacity to execute, against his own reported 1,000 to 1,200 men a day intake rate.
