Russia fired a record 376 missiles and took 42,860 casualties in July 2026 to gain 37.85 square kilometres, against 455.74 a year earlier. In the same week, Sberbank's finance chief said Russian banks can no longer buy the government's bonds, leaving the Central Bank as the buyer of last resort. A Russian missile also came down in Poland, which three days later flew surveillance for an EU tanker boarding.
Russia's costliest month of the war bought its smallest advance, and the Central Bank, not the banks, is now paying for it.
ISW put Russia's confirmed July advance at 37.85 sq km against 455.74 sq km a year earlier, in the month it fired a record 376 missiles.
The Institute for the Study of War recorded Russia's worst month of 2026. Russia fired a record 376 missiles and suffered 42,860 casualties, yet took 37.85 sq km of confirmed ground, the year's smallest gain.
The mismatch points to a stalled offensive. Russia is paying record costs in missiles and men for the thinnest territorial return of the year.
Sberbank's finance chief said Russian lenders have no spare liquidity for government bonds, leaving the Central Bank as the buyer of last resort.
Sberbank's finance chief, Taras Skvortsov, said on 31 July that Russian banks can no longer buy government bonds. He said banks now hold liquidity only for lending, leaving the Central Bank as the main buyer.
The Central Bank has already pumped 2.3 trillion roubles into banks since January. Economists are watching whether it becomes the sole financier of Russia's wartime deficit.
Poland's Premier's Chancellery published its account of a Russian missile that came down on Polish soil under the title "The military was ready at any moment to shoot it down".
A Russian missile aimed at Ukraine crossed into eastern Poland and landed in an uninhabited area on 30 July. Poland's Coordination Team tracked it throughout and stood ready to shoot it down.
Warsaw is weighing supplying Ukraine with more Patriot interceptors, the latest sign that stray Russian ordnance keeps testing NATO's eastern airspace.
An Italian frigate boarded the sanctioned tanker Toa Payoh in international waters, with a Greek warship alongside and a Polish patrol aircraft overhead.
UkraineThe Italian frigate Thaon di Revel boarded the Cameroon-flagged, EU-sanctioned tanker Toa Payoh near Pantelleria on 2 August. The boarding, part of the EU's Mediterranean naval mission, was backed by a Greek warship and Polish patrol aircraft.
Toa Payoh's captain refused to produce documentation, and Italy had not confirmed a formal detention by 2 August. It is the latest sign the EU is stepping up enforcement against Russia's shadow tanker fleet.
Colonel Alexander Ilyukevich said Belarus is completing its 37th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade near Gomel, under plans first announced a year ago.
Belarus is completing formation of its 37th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade near Gomel, about 40km from Ukraine. Commander Colonel Alexander Ilyukevich said on 2 August the plans were first announced in August 2025.
It is a Belarusian force, not a Russian one, but its proximity to the border keeps Kyiv's northern defences on alert regardless of who commands it.
Four staff of a Ukrainian recruitment centre were shot on a residential street in Odesa, in a category of attack that has risen from 5 cases in 2022 to 341 in 2025.
UkraineA 32-year-old man opened fire outside a Territorial Recruitment Centre in Odesa's Cheremushki district on 2 August, wounding four staff, one seriously in the back. Police detained him at the scene.
The centres, Ukraine's local conscription offices, have become flashpoints as mobilisation grows more unpopular and aggressive in the war's third year.
Russia's deputy prime minister spent 2 August chairing an OPEC+ compliance committee and meeting seven member states, with nothing on the fuel question published all window.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak chaired the 67th OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee on 2 August and met seven OPEC+ states. No item on diesel or fuel exports appeared on his public schedule.
Novak also oversees Russia's domestic diesel shortage, which he ordered reviewed on 15 July. Its absence from his logged engagements suggests OPEC+ diplomacy is winning his attention.
The Insider reports businesses across occupied Crimea buckling under rolling power cuts, fuel shortages and a collapsed tourist season, at the peak of the peninsula's earning window.
LatviaThe Insider reported on 30 July that Crimean businesses are struggling under rolling blackouts and fuel shortages. The 2026 tourist season has also collapsed, hitting during the peninsula's peak summer earning window.
The outages persist even between strikes, pointing to a grid capacity shortfall rather than damage alone, one that recovery will take longer than the fighting to fix.
OFAC's principal Russia action of the window was General Licence 131H, the eighth straight monthly rollover of the window to negotiate a Lukoil International GmbH sale.
The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued General Licence 131H on 24 July. It is the eighth straight monthly rollover of the window to negotiate a sale of Lukoil International GmbH, running to 22 August. Closing any sale still needs a separate, deal-specific OFAC licence.
No successor has appeared for the separate crude-oil waiver that lapsed earlier this year, so this update only extends a negotiation window, not oil trade.
ISW passed on Russian-source claims that a device detonated at a Moscow restaurant during a birthday party for Aerospace Forces commander Alexander Chayko, and says it cannot confirm whether he was hurt.
The Institute for the Study of War relayed unconfirmed Russian-source claims that an explosive device detonated on 1 August at a Moscow restaurant. The event was a birthday celebration for Aerospace Forces commander Alexander Chayko.
The Institute for the Study of War says it cannot confirm whether Chayko was hurt. No Russian official channel has verified the incident took place at all.
Direction: sideways on the ground at 37.85 sq km for July 2026, rising at the NATO boundary and inside Russia's financing structure. The specific mechanism that would tip the airspace question: a further Russian missile crossing into Polish territory after the 30 July incursion, when Warsaw's Coordination Team stated in writing its forces were ready to fire rather than merely track it; the next commander's decision window narrows with each published statement of readiness. The specific mechanism that would tip the financing question: a cancelled or sharply shortened-maturity OFZ auction after the RUB 2.3tn injected since January, which would confirm the finance ministry is struggling to place paper on any terms beyond what the Central Bank absorbs.
