Washington licensed Russian diesel on 9 October, three weeks after signing its hardest Russia sanctions law, and pressed Kyiv to stop striking refineries. Moscow has classified the refinery data that would show whether those strikes work. Revised maps show the summer front moved more, on both sides, than first reported.
Washington licensed Russian diesel and leaned on Kyiv to stop refinery strikes, while both sides budget for a longer war.
The US Treasury licensed Russian diesel for American buyers until April 2027, on the day Trump and Putin spent an hour and a half on the phone.
RussiaThe US Treasury licensed sales and imports of Russian diesel on 9 October, the day Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin spoke by phone. General License 135 runs until 7 April 2027.
American buyers can now pay Russian sellers. The licence still keeps US-held accounts of the Bank of Russia and the Russian National Wealth Fund shut. Kaja Kallas, the EU foreign policy chief, said Europe would not follow.
Witkoff and Kushner's talks with Ukraine's delegation in Miami lasted one day of two, and Axios reported a warning over Kyiv's access to US intelligence.
Ukraine×2Talks in Miami between US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and a Ukrainian team ended on 9 October after one of two planned days. Kyrylo Budanov and Rustem Umerov joined Kyiv's team.
Axios reported the envoys warned that Washington could limit Kyiv's access to US intelligence over its refinery strikes. Washington also wants three-way technical talks with Russia by the end of October.
After Trump said Ukraine should get a new leader, Zelenskyy set his terms: a total 60-day ceasefire, then elections.
United StatesLatviaDonald Trump said on 10 October that Ukrainians should get a new leader who can make a deal. Volodymyr Zelenskyy answered on American television the next day.
He offered elections after a 60-day total ceasefire, because Ukrainian law bars a vote under martial law. A day earlier he had offered to stop refinery strikes if Russia stops hitting Ukraine's grid.
Alexander Novak said Russia would end its diesel export ban early and ramp exports to 3 million tonnes a month, eleven days after Moscow extended the ban.
RussiaRussia extended its producer diesel export ban to 31 October on 29 September. Eleven days later, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said exports would restart early, at 300,000 tonnes this month.
Vladimir Putin had said in late September that diesel would stay off world markets while sanctions stood. The reversal followed his 9 October call with Donald Trump.
DeepState now says Russia took 341 sq km in July to September, about triple its first count, after front-line changes were published months late.
RussiaUkrainian mapping group DeepState has raised its count of Russian gains this summer from 107 sq km to 341 sq km. It said Ukrainian advances it had held back for security reasons changed the monthly figures, and more are still to be added.
Denis Pushilin, the Russian-installed head of occupied Donetsk, said on 12 October that Russian troops were enveloping towns around Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Nobody independent confirmed the claim.
Drones disabled Yandex data centres at Sasovo and Kaluga as Kyiv claimed it had knocked out more than half of Russia's oil refining capacity.
United States×3UkraineQatarUkraine claimed on 4 October that its drones had disabled 51% of Russian oil refining. Days later they hit refineries at Omsk and Ukhta.
On 8 October drones also knocked out a Yandex data centre at Sasovo, home to two of its three artificial intelligence supercomputers. Zelenskyy called it a mirror response.
Trump signed the Graham Act on 18 September, starting a 30-day clock on tariffs of up to 100% against the biggest buyers of Russian crude and gas.
Donald Trump signed the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act into law on 18 September. Within 30 days it requires tariffs of up to 100% on goods from the biggest buyers of Russian crude or gas.
That deadline falls around 18 October. India, which buys more than a third of Russia's crude exports, has vowed to protect its trade. A waiver needs written notice to Congress.
Russia is targeting the high-voltage lines that carry power between Ukraine's regions, and a guided bomb killed 23 people in a Zaporizhzhia apartment block.
UkraineRussian strikes are now aimed at the transmission lines that carry power between Ukraine's regions, deputy energy minister Artem Nekrasov said on 9 October. Homes in Kyiv and seven regions lost power.
On 10 October a Russian glide bomb collapsed part of an apartment block in Zaporizhzhia. Rescuers found 23 dead, four of them children.
Russia's Finance Ministry cut its oil and gas revenue forecast by 1,335bn roubles, yet its draft still gives defence a record 17.1tn roubles next year.
LatviaRussia now forecasts 7,584bn roubles from oil and gas in 2026, 1,335bn short of plan. Its deficit for January to September hit 5.19tn roubles.
The 2027 draft budget still gives defence a record 17.1tn roubles, Reuters reported. The Finance Ministry says it is covering the gap mostly without new bond sales.
Putin's Decree No. 686 restricts publication of Russian refinery output, export buyers, carriers, insurers and tanker details, citing US unfriendly actions.
Vladimir Putin signed Decree 686 on 28 September, restricting public data on Russia's fuel industry. It covers refinery output, export prices, buyers, tanker details and loading times.
The decree blames the unfriendly actions of the United States. Kyiv's damage claims and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak's export pledges can no longer be checked against Russian figures.
EU foreign ministers adopted nearly 1,600 new Russia listings, three weeks after Brussels dropped three names to lock in its individual sanctions until 2029.
Russia×2FranceUkraineMeeting in Luxembourg on 12 October, EU foreign ministers added nearly 1,600 names to their Russia sanctions lists in a 22nd package.
In September the EU renewed its individual sanctions for three years, to 2029, instead of six months. To win that deal, it dropped Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman from the list.
Putin's Decree No. 700 raised the authorised strength of Russia's armed forces to 1,550,500 servicemen, eight days after the Duma vote, with no call-up.
Vladimir Putin signed Decree 700 on 28 September, raising the Russian army's ceiling to 1,550,500 servicemen. The June limit was 1,510,000.
The decree came eight days after Russia's parliamentary elections closed, and it orders no call-up. Ukraine's military intelligence chief had said Russian generals wanted 800,000 more troops.
Prime Minister Serhii Koretskyi sent the Rada a 2027 draft giving defence 4.885tn hryvnias, about two-thirds of planned spending.
Prime Minister Serhii Koretskyi sent Ukraine's 2027 draft budget to parliament on 15 September. Defence gets 4.885tn hryvnias, which he put at nearly 44% of economic output.
Partners are expected to add at least 1tn hryvnias of weapons in kind. Kyiv says its own revenue covers only part of the bill.
The National Bank of Ukraine raised its key rate by half a point to 16%, naming Russian attacks on energy, logistics and production as a source of inflation.
Ukraine's central bank, the National Bank of Ukraine, lifted its main interest rate from 15.5% to 16% on 17 September. Consumer prices were rising 8.1% a year in August.
The bank blamed Russian attacks on power plants, roads and factories for part of the pressure. Kyiv's rate now sits two points above Russia's 14%.
The European Commission paid Ukraine €2.9bn on 2 October, and €800m of it was the first budget-support payment from the €90bn Ukraine Support Loan.
BelgiumBrussels sent Kyiv €2.9bn on 2 October, the eighth instalment from its Ukraine Facility fund. Of that, €800m was the first budget-support money from a new €90bn EU loan, whose defence side has paid out since July.
Kyiv had been waiting on about €3.7bn, held up by twelve reform conditions. The European Commission has not said why the payment came in below that figure.
A Putin order of 5 October lets Italy's UniCredit sell its whole Russian subsidiary after a spin-off to the parent, but names no buyer.
Vladimir Putin signed an order on 5 October clearing the sale of all shares in UniCredit's Russian subsidiary bank. First, part of the bank is spun off to its Italian parent.
The order names no buyer and no price. Italy's UniCredit is one of the few large Western lenders left in Russia.
Sideways in diplomacy, up on the ground. Russia's strikes on Ukraine's inter-regional transmission lines and the Zaporizhzhia bombing raise civilian pressure before winter, and Kyiv has widened its targets to Yandex data centres. The tipping point is Trump's choice around 18 October: duties of up to 100% on India and China would keep the Graham Act's pressure on Moscow, while a certified waiver plus US limits on intelligence for Kyiv would shift the pressure onto Ukraine. A Russian pause on grid strikes in return for Zelenskyy's refinery halt is the only stated de-escalation route, and Moscow has not answered it.
