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Ivashchenko says generals asked Putin for 800,000 troops

2 min read

12:20UTC

Oleh Ivashchenko, who heads Ukraine's military intelligence directorate GUR, told The Times on 10 September that Russian generals have asked Putin for 800,000 more troops once the Duma vote is out of the way.

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Key takeaway

Ukrainian intelligence says Russian generals want 800,000 more men after the Duma vote.

Oleh Ivashchenko, who heads GUR, Ukraine's military intelligence directorate, told The Times on 10 September that Russian generals have asked Vladimir Putin for 800,000 more troops once the Duma vote is out of the way. He put Russian recruitment at 1,000 to 1,200 men a day against 1,374 daily casualties averaged since 1 July on Ukrainian General Staff figures, with roughly 60% of those casualties killed rather than wounded.

Both numbers come from a belligerent's intelligence service. A normal casualty ratio leaves about three wounded for every man killed, so a 60% killed share sits far outside it and belongs to Kyiv rather than to any independent count. Ivashchenko also put the ceiling on Russian intake at 300,000 to 500,000 recruits at once, which is his reason for saying 800,000 cannot arrive in one wave.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) makes a separate judgement of its own: that Putin will more likely choose rolling call-ups than a mass mobilisation of the 2022 kind. Ivashchenko owns the intake ceiling and ISW owns the call-up forecast, and merging the two would attribute to Washington a number Kyiv supplied. Russian officials were already discussing a fresh mobilisation wave for October back in June , while Mediazona's verified Russian death count was growing by 200 a day in July .

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Ukraine's military intelligence chief says Russian generals want 800,000 more troops. He also says Russia cannot actually process that many people into the army at once, since the system can only take in 300,000 to 500,000 recruits in a single push. A separate US-based research group's own view is that Putin is more likely to bring in troops gradually rather than announce another big mobilisation like 2022's.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

The gap between the 800,000-troop request Ivashchenko describes and Russia's own 300,000 to 500,000 intake ceiling is why any expansion would have to run in rolling tranches rather than one call-up, which is the structural basis for ISW's separate rolling-call-ups judgement.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Primary parallel: ISW's own reference point is the mass mobilisation Russia ran in 2022, which it judges Putin is less likely to repeat this time.

Counter-parallel: No figure in these files corroborates Ivashchenko's 800,000 request or his casualty count independently; both rest on GUR's own reporting to The Times.

Consensus view: Oleh Ivashchenko, who heads Ukraine's GUR military intelligence directorate, told The Times on 10 September that Russian generals have asked Vladimir Putin for 800,000 more troops once the Duma vote is out of the way, and put Russian recruitment at 1,000 to 1,200 men a day against 1,374 average daily casualties since 1 July on Ukrainian General Staff figures.

Counter-view: Ivashchenko separately put the ceiling on Russian intake at 300,000 to 500,000 recruits at once, meaning the 800,000 request cannot arrive in a single wave; the Institute for the Study of War's own judgement, kept distinct from Ivashchenko's figures, is that Putin will more likely choose rolling call-ups than a mass mobilisation of the kind seen in 2022.

Key tension: GUR's intake ceiling and ISW's mobilisation-form judgement are two different bodies' claims, and treating either as the other's would misstate what each institution actually said.

Sources:Institute for the Study of War

Mentions:Vladimir Putin →Institute for the Study of War →Russia →Washington →Ukrainian General Staff →Mediazona →Kyiv →Ukraine →

First Reported In

Update #27 · Russia's rate hold names the fuel shortage

Institute for the Study of War· 13 Sept 2026

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