13SEP

ISW assesses Ukraine eliminated the Lyman salient

2 min read

12:20UTC

The Institute for the Study of War assessed on 12 September that Ukrainian forces have eliminated the Russian salient north of Lyman. Fighting now runs along the Zherebets River.

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ConflictAssessed

Key takeaway

ISW says Ukraine eliminated the Lyman salient, citing Russian bloggers rather than independent confirmation.

The Institute for the Study of War assessed on 12 September that Ukrainian forces have eliminated the Russian salient north of Lyman that threatened to encircle the Donetsk fortress belt from the north, with fighting now running along the Zherebets River. ISW cites Russian military bloggers conceding the salient has gone.

No independent primary source has confirmed it. Lowdown carries the claim as the assessment of one Washington research group rather than as established fact. The same assessment goes further: ISW holds that Ukraine has contested the operational and strategic initiative for the first time since the Kursk offensive of August 2024, and has held Russia to near-zero net gains since March 2026.

It fits what ISW recorded in July, Russia's smallest monthly advance of the year, on a front it called static with Kostiantynivka still unseized. Kostiantynivka remains unseized now. A salient removed and a town still held together tell you the line moved locally, not that the front has broken.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

A US-based research group says Ukrainian troops have pushed Russian forces out of an area north of the town of Lyman that had threatened to surround a heavily fortified stretch of the front. The claim comes mainly from Russian military bloggers admitting the loss, not from independent confirmation, but the researchers say it is the first time since mid-2024 that Ukraine has held the initiative in the war.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Primary parallel: ISW's own comparison point is August 2024's Kursk offensive, the last time it judged Ukraine held the operational and strategic initiative.

Counter-parallel: Unlike Kursk, which Ukrainian forces themselves announced and which was later corroborated on the ground, the Lyman claim rests on Russian bloggers' concessions relayed through ISW, with no independent confirmation yet.

Consensus view: The Institute for the Study of War assessed on 12 September that Ukrainian forces have eliminated the Russian salient north of Lyman that threatened to encircle the Donetsk fortress belt from the north, with fighting now running along the Zherebets River.

Counter-view: ISW's own sourcing for the claim is Russian military bloggers conceding the salient has gone; no independent primary source has confirmed it, so the assessment rests on one research group's reading of contested secondary accounts.

Key tension: ISW frames this as Ukraine contesting the operational and strategic initiative for the first time since the August 2024 Kursk offensive, holding Russia to near-zero net gains since March 2026, a significant claim resting on unconfirmed sourcing.

Sources:Institute for the Study of War

Mentions:Institute for the Study of War →Lyman →Donetsk Oblast →Kursk →Kostiantynivka →Russia →Washington →Russian forces →Donetsk →Ukraine →

First Reported In

Update #27 · Russia's rate hold names the fuel shortage

Institute for the Study of War· 13 Sept 2026

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Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.