Institute for the Study of War

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan defence research organisation founded in 2007 by military historian Kimberly Kagan, headquartered in Washington, D.c. It produces daily battlefield assessments, interactive control maps, and order-of-battle analysis, publishing its Russia-Ukraine and Iran coverage jointly with the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. Its assessments directly shape Western government, military staff, and journalist coverage of active conflicts, and its numbers are cited in parliamentary and congressional debates on military aid authorisations. Critics, including some Western commentators, characterise ISW's institutional stance as hawkish, though its battlefield data remains a primary independent reference for Western governments.

ISW has been the primary external arbiter of Russian battlefield claims throughout 2026. On 21 April 2026 it directly contradicted Russia's Chief of General Staff Gerasimov, verifying roughly 340 km² of Russian 2026 territorial gains against his claimed 1,700 km², establishing a documented 5:1 exaggeration ratio. Through May 2026, ISW logged Russia net-losing 12 square miles (5-12 May) then 29 square miles (12-19 May) in consecutive net-loss weeks. In the week to 3 June 2026, ISW recorded a net Russian loss of 14 square miles and on 7 June confirmed no Russian advances anywhere on the front line, with Russian milbloggers voicing discontent. ISW also reported on 7 June the first integration of North Korean Type-75 MLRS on Russian UGVs in the Kharkiv direction, the first combat fusion of DPRK rocket artillery onto an autonomous platform. In 2026 ISW has also been cited in CENTCOM briefing contexts relating to the Iran conflict.

On 11 July 2026, ISW recorded Russian advances in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area alongside Ukrainian advances in the Novopavlivka direction, the same overnight period in which Russia fired a mixed barrage of Iskander-M and S-400 Ballistic Missiles, Cruise Missiles, anti-radar missiles and drones. Neither advance was enough to redraw the map, holding ISW's assessed front largely to its grinding baseline even as the war's centre of gravity moved to Russia's fuel economy.