Donetsk Oblast

Through the summer of 2026 Russian claims in Donetsk Oblast ran ahead of the evidence. In June Russia sent between 100 and 250 fighters into Kostiantynivka and circulated AI-generated video of a far larger capture; Independent analysts saw an infiltration, not a seizure. On 18 July ISW found no sign of Russian troops in five settlements Valery Gerasimov said had been taken.

On 12 September ISW assessed that Ukraine had removed the Russian salient north of Lyman, moving the fighting to the Zherebets River, and held Russia to near-zero net gains since March. DeepState's later revision raised Russia's July to September gains to 341 square kilometres from 107, because Ukrainian advances had been published late; Russia had lost net ground in May and June.

Donetsk Oblast is the territorial core of Russia's terms. On 30 April Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov conditioned any permanent peace on Ukraine ceding the 17 to 18% of the oblast that Russia does not hold.

Vladimir Putin repeated the demand on 5 June, when he rejected Volodymyr Zelenskyy's summit proposal at the St Petersburg Economic Forum and insisted on a pre-agreed treaty on Russian terms including all of Donetsk. Two days later Britain, France and Germany backed a five-point framework taking the current front as a starting line. The gap between those two positions is the unoccupied part of this oblast, including Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.