Russian forces

On 12 September, ISW assessed that Ukrainian forces had removed the Russian salient north of Lyman and pushed fighting towards the Zherebets River. Russian military bloggers conceded the ground, but no independent primary source confirmed the assessment.

For Russian forces, the setback also tests the reliability of battlefield claims. On 18 July, General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov announced entries into five Donetsk settlements, yet ISW and Russian bloggers found no corroborating evidence of a Russian presence. The absence of corroboration does not prove a reversal, but it leaves the force's reported gains dependent on its own account.

On 1 August, ISW recorded 42,860 Russian casualties and 376 missiles fired during July, while Russia secured 37.85 square kilometres of confirmed ground. It was Russia's smallest territorial gain of 2026 despite its highest reported missile use.

The cost pattern had appeared earlier. On 22 May, Mykhailo Fedorov said Russian forces had suffered 179 losses for every square kilometre advanced in 2026, compared with 67 in 2025. For the force, the issue is not simply casualty totals: its offensive output has yielded progressively less territory for the personnel and munitions committed.

Russian forces have occupied the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant since March 2022. On 11 June, a strike cut all external electricity for the 19th time, leaving diesel generators and a backup line to maintain cooling at the shut-down site.

By 15 July, the plant had lost off-site power for the 22nd time since 2022, including 10 losses in the preceding three months. Its main line had been unavailable for months, leaving one backup connection as the outside power route. The occupation leaves Russian forces responsible for security and access around a nuclear facility whose cooling depends on vulnerable infrastructure.