Skip to content
You can now search across every topic, entity and event.What's new
Russian forces
Concept

Russian forces

Operational catch-all for Russia's military conducting the Ukraine war.

Russian forces' claimed Donetsk gains on 18 July had no corroboration: the Institute for the Study of War found no evidence troops had entered any of five named settlements, the latest in a run of inflated advance claims.

Last refreshed: 3 August 2026

Key Question

Can Russia sustain offensive operations as attrition costs triple and territorial gains collapse?

Timeline for Russian forces

View full timeline →

Background

Russian forces is the operational term for Russia's military conducting the Ukraine war: ground, air, missile and naval arms under the Ministry of Defence, alongside Wagner Group successor formations and Rosgvardia paramilitary units. The force is funded chiefly through Russian gas and LNG export revenue channelled into a defence budget that consumes the largest share of federal spending.

Advance rates have fallen sharply from the pace seen through 2025. Russia recorded its first net territorial loss since Ukraine's Kursk incursion in April 2026, with its daily advance rate down 70% year on year and territory seized in the preceding six months down 39% on the equivalent 2025 period . That deceleration has persisted: July 2026 brought a record 376 missiles fired and 42,860 casualties for the smallest confirmed territorial gain of the year, 37.85 sq km .

Independent verification of the human cost runs through Mediazona's confirmed-death database, which tracks named, date-verified Russian military deaths separately from Kremlin or Ukrainian General Staff figures, giving outside observers a check on claims from either side.

Key Issues
Battlefield claims

Its claimed gains keep outrunning the map

Russian forces sent 100 to 250 fighters into Kostyantynivka in Donetsk on 20 June and circulated AI-generated video falsely showing a FAR larger capture; the defence ministry claimed 103 buildings taken, while independent analysts assessed a small infiltration .

The pattern repeated on 18 July, when General Valery Gerasimov's staff announced fresh captures in five named Donetsk settlements; ISW's own battlefield mapping showed no confirmed presence in any of them, an absence of corroboration rather than a confirmed reversal .

ZNPP occupation

It keeps the plant on one line

Russian forces have occupied the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant since March 2022, and its main external power line failed again in mid-July, its 22nd loss since 2022 and the tenth in three months alone, leaving a single backup line as the plant's only outside power route .

A month earlier, the same plant hit its 20th total blackout on 20 June, just seven days after engineers restored the main line following the 19th blackout; on-site diesel generators ran cooling through the outage . Repeated blackouts under occupation, not a single incident, define the risk.

Ceasefire tactics

It breaks its own Easter truce

Vladimir Putin ordered Russian forces to observe a unilateral 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire from 16:00 on 11 April to end of day on 12 April 2026, decreed with no monitoring mechanism and no prior Russia-US diplomatic contact .

Ukraine rejected the truce, and Dnipropetrovsk's governor reported 30 Russian strikes on 10 April, before the Ceasefire even began. Kyiv called a later Victory Day truce proposal from the Kremlin theatrical, a pause built for parade optics rather than a genuine step toward peace .

Common Questions
How is Russia's war in Ukraine linked to European gas prices in 2026?
Russian gas and LNG revenues directly fund the military budget. Ceasefire speculation drove TTF down to EUR 42.26 on 11 April 2026. The EU Russian LNG ban on 25 April targets Novatek/Gazprom export income.Source: Lowdown / Bruegel
What is the current state of the Russia-Ukraine war in April 2026?
Russian forces advance rate slowed to 33-50 sq km per week by March 2026, down from 130-150 in mid-2025, as Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia counteroffensive reclaimed 33 net square miles. Putin declared a 32-hour Easter truce, reportedly violated by both sides.Source: ISW / Lowdown
Will an end to the Ukraine war reduce European gas prices?
A Ceasefire would reshape LNG demand assumptions significantly: TTF fell to EUR 42.26 on Ceasefire speculation alone. The EU Russian LNG ban and the structural shift to non-Russian supply, however, would limit the price benefit even if the war ends.Source: Lowdown
What is the difference between Russian forces and the Russian Armed Forces?
In Lowdown's reporting, 'Russian forces' is the operational umbrella covering ground troops, air assets, missile units, naval arms, Wagner successor formations, and Rosgvardia paramilitaries engaged in Ukraine. 'Russian Armed Forces' refers to the formal institutional structure under the Ministry of Defence.Source: Lowdown editorial
How many troops does Russia have deployed in Ukraine in 2026?
Western and Ukrainian estimates put Russian frontline strength at roughly 600,000 personnel across all formations, though exact figures are disputed and include both regular army and mobilised reservists.Source: Ukrainian General Staff
Why are Russian forces making territorial gains in eastern Ukraine in 2026?
Russia entered 2026 with momentum from the 2025 Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka captures. Continued pressure in Donetsk Oblast, combined with Ukrainian ammunition shortages and attritional losses, enabled incremental advances along multiple front sectors.Source: Institute for the Study of War
What weapons are Russian forces using against Ukrainian cities in 2026?
Russian forces have deployed Shahed-series drones, Kh-101 Cruise Missiles, Iskander-M ballistic missiles, and glide-bomb variants including FAB-500 and FAB-1500 UMPK kits as primary strike tools against Ukrainian infrastructure and urban areas.Source: Ukrainian Air Force
Who commands Russian forces in Ukraine?
General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff, holds overall command. Army General Aleksandr Lapin commands the Joint Group of Forces in Ukraine as of 2025, overseeing the four operational groupings (North, West, South, East/Centre).Source: Russian Ministry of Defence
Why did Russia's territorial gains shrink even as its casualties hit a record high in 2026?
ISW found that July 2026 was Russia's most missile-intensive month of the war (376 missiles) and its worst casualty month (42,860), yet its smallest monthly territorial gain: just 37.85 sq km confirmed (121.56 sq km including infiltration), down from 455.74 sq km in July 2025, with Kostiantynivka still unseized.Source: Institute for the Study of War