Israel launched its deadliest Lebanon operation within hours of the ceasefire, killing 254 in a 10-minute blitz the US called a 'reasonable misunderstanding.' Iran published mine charts converting the Hormuz reopening into an IRGC-controlled corridor, while Trump claimed an enrichment ban no Iranian official has confirmed. Three signatories signed three different deals; the war has been redirected, not paused.
The ceasefire redistributed the war across three fronts rather than pausing it on one.
United Kingdom×2The IDF launched 50 fighter jets dropping 160 bombs on 100+ Hezbollah targets across Lebanon in 10 minutes on 8 April, killing 254 and wounding 1,165, hours after the Iran ceasefire took effect.
The deadliest single day of the Lebanon war came under ceasefire cover, with the US and Israel explicitly excluding Lebanon from the agreement.
FranceUnited StatesISNA and Tasnim published IRGC maritime charts on 9 April showing a danger zone over Hormuz TSS lanes dated 28 February to 9 April, directing ships to alternative corridors near Larak Island under IRGC control.
The mine charts convert a wartime blockade into a permanent navigational authority, making the ceasefire's reopening promise a guided tour through Iran's customs architecture.
United StatesTrump posted 'There will be no enrichment of Uranium' on 8 April while Iran's 10-point plan demands enrichment rights and Ghalibaf listed enrichment refusal as ceasefire violation number three.
The enrichment gap is the nuclear fault line the Islamabad talks must bridge on Friday. Both sides have made public commitments that preclude quiet compromise.
QatarIran attacked Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar on ceasefire Day 1 with drones and ballistic missiles, claiming retaliation after attributing the Lavan Island refinery strike to UAE Mirage jets.
By attributing Lavan to the UAE rather than the US or Israel, Iran creates a bilateral casus belli outside the US-Iran ceasefire framework.
United StatesBrent Crude rose 2.8% to $97.42 on 9 April, recovering from the ceasefire crash, while Goldman Sachs cut Q2 forecasts to $90 but flagged $100+ if Hormuz stays shut and $115 if the ceasefire fails.
The $25 spread between Goldman's floor and ceiling is the market's ceasefire confidence interval. Oil at $97 retains a 45% war premium.
Trump posted 'Big day for World Peace!' at 00:01 ET on 8 April and 'the Shootin Starts' within 24 hours, while the White House added a Sequestration Order for FY2027, extending the zero Iran EO pattern to Day 41.
The entire 41-day war and ceasefire have been prosecuted on pre-existing authorities and social media posts. No new Iran-specific executive instrument exists.
Hengaw's 10th casualty report has not been published as of 9 April, with the last confirmed figure of 7,300 killed through Day 34 now a week stale.
The casualty reporting gap means the human cost of the war's final days and ceasefire violations is unverifiable. Independent monitoring has been structurally compromised.
Iran's parliament Speaker Ghalibaf listed three ceasefire violations and called continued negotiations unreasonable, the strongest institutional rejection of the framework from Iran's elected government.
Ghalibaf's rejection carries institutional weight: he is the Speaker of the Majlis and the highest-ranking elected official to publicly repudiate the framework.
QatarSpain reopened its embassy in Tehran on 9 April, the first European diplomatic restoration since the ceasefire began.
A small but concrete diplomatic signal that the ceasefire is producing some normalisation, even as violations dominate headlines.
OFAC's General License U expires 19 April, ten days into the ceasefire window, with no Treasury renewal signal issued.
The first material test of whether ceasefire economics survive contact with the existing sanctions architecture.
