Goldman Sachs forecasts $90/BBL for Q4 2026; the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook projects $89/BBL. The $1 difference creates a coordinated sell-side view anchored above $89 for H2 2026.Source: Goldman Sachs / EIA

Why is Goldman Sachs forecasting higher Brent prices in late 2026?

Goldman's $90 Q4 2026 Brent forecast reflects expected market tightening from sustained Hormuz disruption and constrained non-OPEC supply. The forecast implies Goldman does not price in full Hormuz normalisation before Q4.Source: Goldman Sachs Research

What is Goldman Sachs forecasting for oil in the second half of 2026?

Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven forecast Q4 2026 Brent at $90 per barrel in May 2026, $1 above the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook's $89 projection. Goldman also flagged that sustained Brent at $90-100 would generate sufficient demand destruction to offset part of the Hormuz-driven supply shock.Source: Goldman Sachs Research

Background

Goldman Sachs has featured in the Iran conflict primarily through its commodities and AI displacement research. Its analysts have published forecasts on Brent price trajectories under sustained Hormuz disruption scenarios. With Brent at $108.11 by Day 60 of the conflict, Goldman's energy-price modelling has been among the most cited in market coverage. Simultaneously, Goldman's landmark estimate that AI could displace 25,000 jobs per month (produced by the same research division) has fed into the broader debate about whether the war's economic costs are being absorbed by an already-contracting labour market. The convergence of commodity forecasting and AI displacement modelling from the same institution makes Goldman an unusual cross-topic reference point.

Goldman Sachs is a New York-headquartered full-service investment bank, founded in 1869, with approximately $53.5 billion in annual revenue and a global reach spanning investment banking, securities, asset management, and consumer finance. Its research division publishes macroeconomic, commodities, and equity forecasts that move institutional positioning worldwide. Key oil analyst: Daan Struyven, Head of Oil Research, whose Brent price calls during the Iran conflict and its aftermath have been among the most widely cited sell-side forecasts of 2026. Goldman's AI displacement research (estimating 25,000 US jobs per month substituted, with net displacement of -16,000 per month) has simultaneously made it a central reference in the jobs-and-AI debate. Goldman operates under Federal Reserve and SEC oversight as a primary dealer in US monetary operations, giving its recession probability estimates institutional weight beyond ordinary market commentary.

Goldman Sachs features in European oil markets primarily as a sell-side price anchor. Analyst Daan Struyven issued a Q4 2026 Brent forecast of $90/BBL in early May following the UAE's exit from OPEC and the Hormuz closure; the projection sat $1 above the EIA STEO's $89 Q4 figure, creating a coordinated above-$89 signal for H2 2026 forward purchasing. Goldman's late-May analysis noted that demand destruction from sustained Brent at $90-100 would offset some of the supply-shock uplift, contextualising the China crude-import decade-low that Kpler recorded in May 2026. The bank's oil forecasts are used by European refiners and sovereign energy buyers to calibrate Q3-Q4 hedging and forward-purchasing strategy.