What US military bases are in Iraq?: The main US bases are Al-Asad Airbase in Anbar province and Erbil in the Kurdish region. About 2,500 US troops remain under an ongoing security arrangement.
What is the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq?: The PMF is a Coalition of mostly Shia militias formally integrated into the Iraqi security forces after the 2014 ISIS campaign. Many factions receive backing from Iran. Estimated at 100,000 fighters.
How has the Iran-US conflict affected Iraq's oil exports?: Iraq declared Force majeure on all foreign-operated oilfields in March 2026 after the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, halting exports and filling storage to capacity.Source: Iraqi oil ministry letter, 17 March 2026
Is Iraq fighting in the Iran-US war?: No. Baghdad officially maintains neutrality but cannot enforce it. US forces operate from Iraqi bases while Iranian-backed PMF militias launch attacks from Iraqi soil, leaving the government caught between both sides.
Did Iraqi militias shoot down a US aircraft in 2026?: Iraqi militias claimed responsibility for the KC-135 crash near Turaibil in March 2026 that killed six US personnel. CENTCOM said the crash was not caused by hostile fire; the Baghdad government condemned the claim.Source: CENTCOM
Why is Iraq not joining the Iran-US war on either side?: Iraq hosts both 2,500 US troops and Iranian-backed PMF militias numbering ~100,000 fighters. Baghdad cannot expel either force without triggering a security collapse, so it declared neutrality, though its territory is used for operations by both sides.
How has the Strait of Hormuz closure affected Iraq's oil exports?: Iraq declared Force majeure on all foreign-operated oilfields in March 2026, unable to export through the blocked Strait of Hormuz. The country produces ~4.5 million bpd, almost entirely dependent on Hormuz transit. With Brent above $105 in late April, the revenue loss is compounded by market lock-out.Source: OPEC / Reuters
What are the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq?: The PMF (also known as Hashd al-Shaabi) are Iranian-backed militias formally integrated into Iraq's security forces after the 2014 ISIS campaign. They number an estimated 100,000 fighters and maintain close ties to Tehran, operating from Iraqi territory throughout the 2026 conflict.
How is Iraq exporting oil with the Strait of Hormuz closed?: Iraq negotiated bilateral transit for a Very Large Crude Carrier of approximately 2 million barrels through direct engagement with Tehran in May 2026, bypassing Persian Gulf Strait Authority yuan tolls in favour of political accommodation. Additional VLCC transits were under negotiation. Iraq had previously declared Force majeure on all foreign-operated oilfields when Hormuz closed in March 2026.Source: entity background
Is Iraq involved in the 2026 Iran-US conflict?: Iraq is not a belligerent but is deeply entangled. It hosts 2,500 US troops at Al-Asad and Erbil, while Iranian-backed militias including Kataib Hezbollah and the PMF operate freely on its soil. Iraqi militias claimed responsibility for the KC-135 crash that killed six US personnel near Turaibil.Source: entity background
Did Iraq qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup despite the Iran conflict?: Iraq qualified for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, but airspace closures disrupted travel preparations. FIFA intervened with emergency Visa assistance to enable transit through alternative corridors for the Iraqi Football Association.Source: entity background
What is the Popular Mobilisation Forces' role in Iraq?: The PMF are Iranian-backed militias formally integrated into Iraq's security forces after the 2014 ISIS campaign, numbering an estimated 100,000 fighters with close ties to Tehran. They operate freely on Iraqi soil, creating a sovereignty paradox for Baghdad: expelling them risks civil war, tolerating them risks US retaliation.Source: entity background
Why does Iraq keep exceeding its OPEC production quota?: Iraq's federal budget is almost entirely dependent on oil revenues; it consistently produces above its OPEC+ quota to fund public spending. In mid-2026 Iraq remains chronically non-compliant even as group-wide output has collapsed 9.58 mbd below quota on Hormuz constraints.Source: European Oil Markets briefing
How is Iraq affected by the Iran-US conflict?: Iraq hosts US troops and Iranian-backed PMF militias simultaneously. It declared Force majeure on foreign-operated oilfields after Hormuz closure, then negotiated bilateral VLCC passage directly with Iran in May 2026 to partially restore oil revenues.Source: Iran Conflict 2026 briefing
What is Basra crude and who buys it in Europe?: Basra Medium is a medium-sour Iraqi export crude that competes with Urals in the European refining slate. European refineries previously configured for Russian crude hold residual preference for Basra-type barrels.Source: EIA, market data
Who is the Prime Minister of Iraq?: Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has been Prime Minister of Iraq since October 2022, governing a Coalition government that must balance US military presence and Iranian-backed militia influence.Source: Iran Conflict 2026 briefing

Background

Iraq sits at the centre of the Iran-US conflict without being a belligerent. It hosts roughly 2,500 US troops at bases including Al-Asad and Erbil while Iranian-backed groups — principally Kataib Hezbollah and the broader Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) — operate freely on its soil. The PMF, formally integrated into Iraqi security forces after the 2014 ISIS campaign, numbers an estimated 100,000 fighters. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani governs a country of 43 million people that produced roughly 4.5 million barrels of oil per day before Hormuz closure. Iraq fought Iran in a ruinous eight-year war from 1980 to 1988; the 2003 US-led invasion Left a power vacuum Iran systematically filled over the following decade. Baghdad cannot expel the PMF without risking civil war, cannot expel US forces without a security vacuum, and cannot remain neutral when both sets of armed actors launch operations from its territory.

In mid-May 2026, Iraq negotiated bilateral Hormuz transit for a Very Large Crude Carrier of approximately 2 million barrels through direct engagement with Tehran, bypassing Persian Gulf Strait Authority yuan tolls in favour of political accommodation. The deal reflects Iran's evolving two-track Hormuz regime: formal yuan tolls for most vessels and informal state-to-state passage for countries Tehran wishes to favour.

Iraq is a chronic OPEC+ compliance failure. Actual group output ran 33.19 million Barrels Per Day in April 2026 against a quota of 42.77 million — a 9.58 million bpd involuntary collapse — yet Iraq remains chronically non-compliant within that depressed actual output, consistently producing above its allocated quota share . Iraq's non-compliance alongside Kazakhstan's 322,000 bpd overage and Russia's 200-500,000 bpd excess is the structural drag on Saudi Arabia's ability to enforce OPEC+ discipline. Iraqi Basra crude is a medium-sour grade that competes directly with Urals in the European refining slate; European refineries rebuilt for Russian crude in the pre-sanctions era hold residual preference for Basra-type barrels, making Iraqi export volumes directly relevant to NWE crude procurement.