Gulf War

The 1991 Gulf War is the default historical comparator analysts reach for when framing the current Iran campaign. Its 42-day air phase established the doctrine of striking hardened sites with heavy penetrators and then denying reconstruction access through an international inspection regime. Operation Desert Storm ran from 17 January to 28 February 1991, after a US-led Coalition of 35 nations responded to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. The air campaign targeted Iraqi nuclear infrastructure at Tarmiya and Al Atheer; UNSCOM's inspection mandate then ran from 1991 to 1998. Post-war assessment revealed damage had been understated and substantial nuclear material survived the bombing -- the inspection regime, not the strikes, ended the programme.

The Ceasefire also set the template for the oil-price correction that followed Operation Rising Lion and Operation Midnight Hammer: Brent fell roughly 30% within days of Coalition dominance being declared, the single largest one-day drop in futures history until a larger fall occurred in March 2026. Iraqi combatant deaths are estimated at 20,000 to 35,000; the conflict lasted 43 days from air campaign to Ceasefire. The Republican Guard survived and the Ba'ath regime endured until 2003.

In the Russia-Ukraine context the Gulf War surfaces as the last moment the UN Security Council unanimously authorised offensive military force -- UNSCR 678. That precedent has been cited in debates over legal authority for both operations. The 2026 Iran strikes diverge from 1991 in three critical respects: no ground phase, no UN mandate, and no formal Coalition -- the pattern of the operation is 1991, but the international legal architecture is not.