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Russia-Ukraine War 2026
22OCT

Day 1702: Kremlin floats 10 November talks as diesel deal work begins

5 min read
19:10UTC

Putin told Steve Witkoff that Russia is ready in principle to resume talks with the US and Ukraine around 10 November, the Kremlin says, and that work on a Russian diesel deal with Washington has begun. Ukraine struck St Petersburg as Russia's seaborne crude fell to its lowest since March. Russian attacks on Ukraine's export routes cost it about €60m a day, the EU says.

Key takeaway

Moscow's readout offers Washington a talks date and diesel while refusing Kyiv an energy truce.

This briefing mapped
Diplomatic
Military
Economic
Regulatory

Yuri Ushakov said Putin told Steve Witkoff on 21 October that Russia is ready in principle to resume talks with the US and Ukraine around 10 November.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources
Sources:Kremlin

Ukrainian drones hit a VK data centre, a substation, an Ozon logistics hub and a motorway span in St Petersburg overnight on 17-18 October.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Kaja Kallas told the European Parliament that Russian attacks on Ukraine's trade routes since mid-July cost it about €60m a day in export revenue.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources from Malaysia and Ukraine
MalaysiaUkraine
LeftRight

Kaja Kallas, the EU's top diplomat, said on 20 October that Ukraine loses about €60m a day in exports to Russian strikes on its routes. She counted six attacks on Black Sea shipping in ten days.

Drones hit two tankers off Romania's coast, and seven sailors remain missing. The EU is discussing a navigation arrangement, which Ukraine proposed, with Turkey and India, and Turkey decides which warships enter the Black Sea. 

Russia shipped 3.13m barrels a day of crude by sea in the week to 18 October, its lowest since March, while Primorsk loaded nothing for about three days.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Russia shipped 3.13m barrels of crude a day by sea in the week to 18 October, the least since March. Primorsk, its biggest Baltic oil port, loaded nothing for about three days.

The ua.news report said technical work at the port or on its feed pipeline may explain the pause. Russia now keeps refinery and export figures secret, so ship-tracking and outside estimates are the main window on its oil trade. 

Sources:UA.NEWS

Volodymyr Zelenskyy met the US envoy in Oslo on 20 October and said Witkoff would carry a paper of security guarantee options to Moscow.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources from Ukraine (includes Ukraine state media)
Ukraine

The Kremlin says a Russia-China-US leaders' meeting at November's APEC summit in Shenzhen is being prepared; China's foreign ministry says it has no information.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources from Ukraine (includes Ukraine state media)
Ukraine

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on 21 October that no capital had rejected a Putin-Xi-Trump meeting at November's Asia-Pacific summit in Shenzhen. China's foreign ministry said twice it had no information.

Putin also told Chinese Premier Li Qiang on 21 October that he and Xi had met three times this year. Zelenskyy wants a Ukrainian seat at any such table. 

Jet-powered Shahed-type drones rose from 9-22% of Russia's nightly launches at Ukraine to 47-64% within a week, on Lowdown's count from Ukrainian Air Force data.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Jet-powered Shahed drones made up 47% to 64% of Russia's nightly drone launches on 20-22 October. Earlier that week it was 9% to 22%. Lowdown worked out the shares from Ukrainian Air Force counts.

Russia sent fewer drones but hit more places. A jet drone gives gunners on the ground far less time than the slower propeller Shahed. 

Marco Rubio was due to stay overnight at Reliance's Jamnagar refinery complex and meet Mukesh Ambani on his India trip, four days after Trump waived Graham Act tariffs.

Sources profile:This story draws on centre-left-leaning sources from India
India
Sources:The Wire

A Ukrainian long-range drone from the St Petersburg raid crossed from Polish airspace and blew up in Lithuania's Pasvalys district on 18 October.

Sources profile:This story draws on centre-leaning sources from Lithuania, Latvia and 1 more
LithuaniaLatviaUkraine
LeftRight

A Ukrainian long-range drone exploded near Juodžionys in northern Lithuania on 18 October, damaging a passing car. It had crossed from Poland during the raid on St Petersburg.

Ukraine apologised to Vilnius, and Warsaw wants an explanation. In November 2022 a stray Ukrainian air-defence missile killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, and NATO treated it as an accident. 

Hungary's prime minister, Péter Magyar, said Ukrainian maize may cross Hungary in sealed trains provided it only passes through.

Sources profile:This story draws on mixed-leaning sources from Malaysia
Malaysia
LeftRight

Hungary's prime minister, Péter Magyar, said Ukrainian maize may travel through Hungary in sealed trains to Western Europe, Reuters reported on 17 October. It must merely transit the country, he said.

Zelenskyy had asked four neighbours to let grain through at the 16 October EU summit. The seals mean the cargo cannot be sold to Hungarian buyers on the way. 

Zelenskyy said partners gave Ukraine no warning of a Russian ballistic wave on 18 October; after a call with Marco Rubio, he said the warnings were working again.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Ukraine had no advance alert from its allies when Russia's first ballistic missiles flew on the night of 18 October, Zelenskyy said. He added that Washington gave no reason.

He spoke to Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, on 20 October and then said the warnings were working again. In March 2025 Washington briefly cut intelligence sharing with Kyiv. 

Russia's annual inflation stood at 7.15% on 19 October, down from 7.22% a week earlier but up from 6.35% at the end of September, before the Central Bank of Russia sets rates on 23 October.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources from Russia
Russia

Russia's annual inflation stood at 7.15% on 19 October, easing from 7.22% a week earlier, Interfax reported. At the end of September it stood at 6.35%.

The Central Bank of Russia meets on 23 October with its key rate at 14% and a 4% target. Analysts it polled had forecast 7.1% for the whole of 2026. 

Sources:Interfax

DeepState's map updates for 17-21 October showed only Russian advances, including inside Rai-Oleksandrivka on 21 October.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Alexander Lukashenko said on 22 October that talks with the US are making progress despite problems over exchanging political prisoners for lifted sanctions; the day before, Washington delisted a Belarusian national.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Alexander Lukashenko said on 22 October that talks with Washington show progress on many issues. He said this came despite problems being played up over swapping political prisoners for sanctions relief, and that the talks include the embassy.

A day earlier the US Treasury dropped a Belarusian, Andrei Rybakov, from its sanctions list without explanation. In September 2025 Minsk freed 52 prisoners and Washington eased sanctions on the airline Belavia. 

South Korea will withdraw some staff from its Kyiv embassy, citing Ukraine's inaction since Seoul recalled its ambassador and the danger from air strikes.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

South Korea's foreign ministry said on 20 October it will pull some staff from its Kyiv embassy. Seoul had already recalled its ambassador, and it also cited the danger from air strikes.

The dispute began when Zelenskyy made public the handover of two North Korean prisoners of war to Seoul, which wanted it kept quiet. A deputy envoy and consular staff stay on. 

OFAC's General License 131K gives buyers until 21 November to negotiate contingent contracts for Lukoil International GmbH and its subsidiaries.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources
Closing comments

Up at sea, sideways at the table. Kallas told the European Parliament on 20 October that Russia's attacks on Black Sea shipping are escalating, while the talks date slipped from October to around 10 November 2026 and Ushakov's readout ties no pause in strikes to it. The next decision point is that round: if Moscow, Washington and Kyiv confirm a session by 14 November, the strike campaigns become bargaining terms; if not, the shipping attacks remain Russia's only policy with momentum.

Different Perspectives
Kremlin (Yuri Ushakov)
Kremlin (Yuri Ushakov)
Ushakov said on 21 October that Russia is ready "in principle" to resume trilateral talks around 10 November and that diesel deal work has begun. In the same readout he said strikes on Ukraine's energy and logistics continue "as a retaliatory measure".
Chinese foreign ministry (Mao Ning)
Chinese foreign ministry (Mao Ning)
Asked on 21 and 22 October about a China-Russia-US leaders' meeting at APEC in Shenzhen, Mao Ning said she had no information. Beijing repeated that it will promote peace talks, without endorsing the format Moscow described.
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio
On his India trip Rubio said US sanctions reach every buyer of Russian oil as well as Russia itself. He said he hoped the Graham Act waiver and a trade deal "a matter of weeks, not months" away would resolve the issue with New Delhi.
Alexander Stubb
Alexander Stubb
Stubb co-hosted the 20 October Oslo talks with Zelenskyy and Witkoff and called them a step towards a lasting and just peace. He said Finland stands with Ukraine and must help bring Russia's war of aggression to an end.