22OCT

Zelenskyy says US early warning is back

1 min read

19:10UTC

Zelenskyy said partners gave Ukraine no warning of a Russian ballistic wave on 18 October; after a call with Marco Rubio, he said the warnings were working again.

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ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

Zelenskyy says US missile warnings resumed after lapsing on two nights this month.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 19 October that Ukraine got no early warning from partners of the first wave of Russia's ballistic missile attack the night before, and that the US gave no explanation⁠¹. He had made the same complaint about the 13 October strike on Kyiv. Ukraine relies largely on US satellite and radar data for warning of ballistic launches, which gives crews and people in shelters a few minutes' notice.

On 20 October Zelenskyy spoke to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio about Starlink, anti-ballistic missiles and intelligence. Afterwards he said "early warning is already working". He did not say why the warnings had lapsed. The call came a week after SpaceX capped Ukraine's Starshield terminals on the move at 160 km/h.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

A ballistic missile flies very high and very fast, so a city may get only a few minutes' notice. That notice usually comes from American satellites that spot the heat of a launch. The US passes those alerts to Ukraine. Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, says the alerts did not arrive on two recent nights, and the US did not explain why. After he spoke to Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, Zelenskyy said the alerts had resumed.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Early warning of ballistic launches comes mainly from US infrared satellites, such as the Space-Based Infrared System, which see a missile's plume seconds after launch. Europe has no operational equivalent, so Ukraine's own radars pick up missiles only later in flight.

Ukraine's military also depends on US commercial space services. SpaceX restricted Ukraine's Starshield terminals on 14 October without warning, the same week the alerts lapsed, and Starlink was on the agenda of the Rubio call.

Escalation

Restored for now. The lapse coincided with heavy ballistic strikes on Kyiv, and Zelenskyy's later statement says warning resumed, but Washington has not explained either gap.

What could happen next?

Risk
If warnings can lapse without notice, Kyiv's shelter alerts lose minutes on the nights that matter most.
Consequence
European governments face pressure to fund their own missile-warning satellites to reduce Ukraine's single dependence on US data.

Sources:President of Ukraine

Mentions:Volodymyr Zelenskyy →Marco Rubio →United States →Ukraine →Starlink →Jeddah →Russia →Iran →Starshield →Kyiv →SpaceX →Israel →Oval Office →

First Reported In

Update #30 · Kremlin floats 10 November talks as diesel deal work begins

President of Ukraine· 22 Oct 2026

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Different Perspectives

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Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.