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Russia-Ukraine War 2026
22OCT

Kallas counts €60m a day in lost exports

3 min read
19:10UTC

Kaja Kallas told the European Parliament that Russian attacks on Ukraine's trade routes since mid-July cost it about €60m a day in export revenue.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Russia is squeezing Ukraine's sea and land export routes, at about €60m a day, Kallas says.

Kaja Kallas, the EU's foreign policy chief, told the European Parliament on 20 October that Ukraine is losing about €60m a day in export revenue from Russian attacks on its trade routes since mid-July⁠1. About 90% of its cargo moves through the Black Sea corridor. Kallas counted six attacks on Black Sea shipping in ten days by suspected Russian drones, which she called "a dangerous and unacceptable escalation"⁠2.

Seven sailors were still missing after a drone attack on two tankers off Romania's coast, Kallas said, and Romanian F-16s shot down two drones over Romanian territorial waters on 17 October. The drone-hit cargo ship Chelsea 3 was towed into the Bulgarian port of Burgas on 17 October, and military prosecutors in Sofia opened pre-trial proceedings⁠3. Days earlier, drones had sunk the HS Dignity off Bulgaria.

Russian attacks have "almost halted" farm exports from Ukraine's Black Sea ports, Reuters reported on 17 October⁠4. Ukraine supplies about 15% of the world's maize exports and half its sunflower oil⁠5, and Kallas said global grain prices are at their highest since February 2023. The EU is discussing a Black Sea freedom-of-navigation arrangement with Turkey, India and other partners; Ukraine proposed it and Russia has rejected it, she said.

Kallas said Russia is also hitting the land crossings into Moldova, Romania and Poland. Moldova has pulled its border guards and customs officers from four crossings on Ukrainian soil after strikes near the border, and is weighing moving Ukrainian checkpoints onto Moldovan territory⁠6. On 19 October Kallas proposed a further round of EU sanctions listings aimed at the shadow fleet, energy and banking⁠7.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Ukraine is a major exporter of grain and cooking oil. Most of it leaves by ship from ports near Odesa, crossing the Black Sea towards Turkey. Russia has been attacking those ships and ports with drones. Kaja Kallas, who runs the European Union's foreign policy, says this costs Ukraine about €60m a day. Turkey controls the narrow straits that link the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. Under a 1936 treaty, it decides which navies may sail in. That makes Turkey central to any plan to protect shipping.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Ukraine's exports are bulk cargoes, grain, oilseeds and metals, that only ships move at scale. When attacks hit a corridor carrying nine-tenths of the trade, the whole route reprices, because insurers rate the area rather than the vessel.

Kallas said Russia also hits land crossings into Moldova, Romania and Poland, which raises the cost of moving cargo by land, and Moldova pulling its officers from four crossings shows the strikes now shape where customs work happens.

Earlier drone attacks off Bulgaria widened the risk zone to the western Black Sea, inside NATO members' waters.

Escalation

Escalating. Kallas counted six attacks in ten days, Romanian jets shot down drones over Romanian waters, and strikes now reach land crossings into three EU or EU-candidate states.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Ukraine's budget loses export tax revenue and foreign currency at a time when its 2027 financing is not settled.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Risk

    Drone shoot-downs over Romanian waters raise the chance of a NATO member's forces clashing directly with Russian drones at sea.

    Short term · Suggested
  • Opportunity

    A navigation arrangement that includes India and Turkey would bring non-Western buyers into protecting the corridor.

    Medium term · Suggested
First Reported In

Update #30 · Kremlin floats 10 November talks as diesel deal work begins

EEAS· 22 Oct 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
This Event
Kallas counts €60m a day in lost exports
Attacks on the Black Sea corridor, which carries about 90% of Ukraine's cargo, reach world grain prices as well as Kyiv's budget.
Different Perspectives
South Korean foreign ministry
South Korean foreign ministry
Seoul said on 20 October it will withdraw some Kyiv embassy staff, citing no constructive steps from Kyiv since it recalled its ambassador over the disclosure of two North Korean prisoners. A chargé d'affaires and consular staff stay, and Seoul says its aid continues.
Alexander Lukashenko
Alexander Lukashenko
Lukashenko said on 22 October that talks with the US show progress despite problems, which he said were highlighted with the exchange of political prisoners for the lifting of sanctions. He said Minsk keeps its promises and wants the US to deliver its side in full.
Moldovan government (Daniella Misail-Nichitin)
Moldovan government (Daniella Misail-Nichitin)
Moldova has pulled its border guards and customs officers from four crossings on Ukrainian soil after Russian strikes near the border. Interior Minister Daniella Misail-Nichitin said Chisinau is weighing moving Ukrainian checkpoints onto Moldovan territory.
Péter Magyar
Péter Magyar
Magyar told RTL that Ukrainian maize may cross Hungary in sealed trains bound for Western Europe. He set one condition: the cargo must only transit the country.
Donald Tusk
Donald Tusk
Tusk said Warsaw would seek an explanation from Kyiv for the drone's route across Poland. He said Poland allows no operations over its territory without its explicit consent.
Mindaugas Sinkevičius
Mindaugas Sinkevičius
Lithuania's prime minister said the Ukrainian drone that exploded in Pasvalys district on 18 October carried explosives and entered from Poland through the Schengen zone. Earlier drones over Lithuania had come from Belarus, not through allied airspace.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.