Alexander Lukashenko

Alexander Lukashenko has ruled Belarus since winning a presidential election in 1994, making him Europe's longest-serving head of state. His relationship with Russia deepened sharply after the disputed 2020 election triggered mass protests; with his security forces unable to guarantee power alone, Lukashenko accepted Russian political cover and economic subsidy in exchange for closer strategic alignment. The Union State treaty framework that formally binds the two countries has given Russia basing and transit rights on Belarusian territory throughout the war in Ukraine.

In June 2026 Lukashenko became a direct party to the Ukraine conflict without committing Belarusian troops. Zelenskyy issued a public ultimatum on or around 20 June giving Belarus until approximately 27 June 2026 to dismantle four drone relay stations in the Homiel and Brest oblasts, through which Russia routes drone attacks onto Zhytomyr, Rivne and Volyn, or face Ukrainian strikes on those stations. The Institute for the Study of War assessed the Kremlin was simultaneously framing any Ukrainian strike on Belarusian territory as grounds to invoke Union State collective-security provisions, potentially obliging Belarus to treat the strike as an attack on both states.

The ultimatum placed Lukashenko in a structural bind: dismantling the stations defies Moscow, while leaving them risks a Ukrainian strike that Moscow could then leverage into pulling Belarusian manpower into the war. His ability to resist Russian pressure is constrained by the 2020 political crisis, which Left him without a legitimate domestic power base independent of Kremlin support. Western states do not recognise him as president following that election, further limiting his diplomatic room.