22OCT

Lukashenko reports progress in US talks

1 min read

19:10UTC

Alexander Lukashenko said on 22 October that talks with the US are making progress despite problems over exchanging political prisoners for lifted sanctions; the day before, Washington delisted a Belarusian national.

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ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

Lukashenko says talks with Washington are progressing despite problems over a prisoners-for-sanctions exchange.

Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus's president, said on 22 October that talks with the United States had made progress on many issues "despite the fact that individual problems are highlighted, as they say, with the exchange of political prisoners for the lifting of sanctions"⁠¹. He spoke after a report on the talks and said questions about the embassy are also on the table. Washington suspended operations at its Minsk embassy in February 2022.

The day before, the US Treasury's sanctions office (OFAC) removed Belarusian national Andrei Rybakov from its list without giving a reason⁠². Relief from Washington would ease a dependence Meduza documented in June, when it reported Russia using financial leverage over Minsk.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Belarus is Russia's closest ally and lies between Russia, Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states. Its leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has ruled since 1994 and holds many opponents in prison. The US and Europe have put sanctions, or trade and travel penalties, on Belarus. Lukashenko says talks with the US are making progress, despite what he called problems over swapping prisoners for lifted sanctions. The day before he spoke, the US Treasury removed one Belarusian man from its sanctions list without saying why.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Belarus's economy leans on potash exports, which Western sanctions on Belaruskali and Lithuania's halt to transit through Klaipėda in February 2022 pushed onto longer routes through Russia. Sanctions relief would reopen cheaper markets and ports.

The US suspended operations at its Minsk embassy in February 2022. Restoring it would give Washington a channel into a state that hosts Russian forces and borders Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania.

Lukashenko holds the prisoners as his main bargaining asset, so each release buys relief in instalments rather than settling the dispute.

What could happen next?

Consequence
Further US delistings may follow prisoner releases, widening a gap between US and EU policy on Belarus.
Risk
Easing pressure on Minsk while Belarus hosts Russian forces could weaken Western leverage over the northern approach to Ukraine.

Sources:US Treasury OFAC·US Treasury OFAC·Pul Pervogo

Mentions:Alexander Lukashenko →OFAC →Belarus →United States →Russia →Ukraine →Washington →Meduza →US Treasury →Poland →Baltic states →Russian forces →

First Reported In

Update #30 · Kremlin floats 10 November talks as diesel deal work begins

US Treasury OFAC· 22 Oct 2026

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Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.