The Graham Act's tariffs on Russia and its oil buyers now exist on paper only: Donald Trump wrote them and waived them in one order on 16 October, with no condition on Moscow. Ukraine's week ran the other way. Russia fired more than 850 drones at 15 Ukrainian regions in one night, Kyiv declared the energy truce over and Ukraine says SpaceX capped its military satellite terminals on the move. EU leaders refused to hand frozen Russian assets to Washington.
Washington's pressure on Moscow now rests on one executive decision; Europe keeps the frozen assets under its own law.
Donald Trump's 16 October order sets a 500% duty on Russian goods and 100% on Moscow's biggest oil customers, then waives both in the same text.
United StatesDonald Trump signed an order on 16 October that writes the Graham Act's Russia tariffs into force and waives them in the same text. The duties reach 500% on Russian goods. The waiver asks nothing of Moscow and lasts until the President or Secretary of State ends it.
Congress passed the Act by wide margins in August and September. The White House can now impose those tariffs without another vote.
Russia fired more than 850 drones at 15 Ukrainian regions overnight on 14-15 October, after two days of strikes that killed four people in Kharkiv.
United States×4Russia sent more than 850 drones at 15 Ukrainian regions on the night of 14 to 15 October. Ukraine's Air Force stopped 536 of them, and three people died in Kropyvnytskyi.
The raid outnumbered the roughly 800 drones of 13 May. It came days after Trump said both sides had agreed to stop hitting energy targets.
Ukraine's Ministry of Defence says SpaceX capped Starshield terminals on the move at 160 km/h overnight on 14 October, without warning.
United StatesSpaceX capped Ukraine's military Starshield terminals at 160 km/h on the night of 14 October, Ukraine's Ministry of Defence said. The ministry said its forces had no warning and that the cap hit drones and moving units.
Poland pays about $50m a year for Ukraine's Starlink service. Its foreign minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, asked Elon Musk on X whether he was playing politics with his products again.
Russia's Defence Ministry claimed eight settlements on 17 October, among them the Donetsk coal town of Dobropillia, but DeepState's maps show no Russian control there.
Russia's Ministry of Defence claimed eight settlements on 17 October, including the coal-mining town of Dobropillia in Donetsk region. Valery Gerasimov had reported its capture to Putin the evening before.
DeepState's maps show Russian gains on the edges of Dobropillia but no control of the town. In July Gerasimov also named Dobropillia, and the Institute for the Study of War found no evidence Russian troops had entered it.
EU leaders at their October summit rejected a US idea to hand Washington the roughly €200bn of frozen Russian assets held in Europe, then left Ukraine's funding undecided.
Ukraine×2EU leaders meeting in Brussels on 15 and 16 October refused a US idea to hand Washington the roughly €200bn of Russian assets frozen in Europe. Friedrich Merz said the money stays frozen in Europe.
The same summit put off a decision on financing Ukraine, including its 2027 needs. Earlier that week the EU opened two more clusters of membership talks with Kyiv, after Hungary dropped its veto.
Ukrainian drones set a refinery in Russia's Ryazan region on fire on 15 October, and Zelenskyy told the Financial Times "We're done" with the energy ceasefire.
United States×3Ukrainian drones set a refinery in Russia's Ryazan region on fire on 15 October. Hours earlier, Neptune missiles hit Borisoglebsk air base, where Kyiv says six Su-34M bombers were damaged.
Zelenskyy told the Financial Times Ukraine was "done" with the energy truce Trump announced on 11 October. Each side now blames the other.
Drones sank the cargo ship HS Dignity off Bulgaria's Black Sea coast overnight on 12-13 October, leaving 11 crew missing, and Sofia has asked NATO for air defence.
UkraineDrones sank the cargo ship HS Dignity off Bulgaria's coast on the night of 12 to 13 October. Five sailors were rescued and 11 are missing, while a second ship, Chelsea 3, was hit but all 15 crew survived.
On 16 October Bulgaria asked NATO for aircraft, air defence and counter-drone systems after the unclaimed strikes.
Andy Burnham sped up part of a £45m British air-defence missile delivery as Zelenskyy visited London on 14 October, and his ministers pushed allies to target Russian gas shipping.
MalaysiaPrime Minister Andy Burnham said on 14 October that Britain will rush £10m of a planned £45m missile delivery to Ukraine. The missiles shoot down Russia's jet-powered drones.
His ministers are also pressing allies to bar shipping, insurance and finance services for Russian gas cargoes. London hosts much of that trade, so the ban would bite through British firms.
Analysts polled by the Central Bank of Russia now expect 7.1% inflation this year and a wider budget deficit, even with a higher oil price.
Economists surveyed by the Bank of Russia now expect 7.1% inflation this year, up from 6.6%, and a wider budget deficit of 3.7% of national output. The poll came out on 14 October.
The economists raised their oil price assumption to $70 a barrel and still expect the deficit to widen. The bank sets its key rate on 23 October, after holding at 14% in September.
DeepState recorded Ukrainian forces retaking Kolodiazi, Lypove and Zelena Dolyna on 14 October, and the Institute for the Study of War saw Ukrainian gains near Druzhkivka.
UkraineDeepState recorded Ukrainian troops retaking Kolodiazi, Lypove and Zelena Dolyna, north of Lyman, on 14 October. Two days later the Institute for the Study of War logged Ukrainian gains near Druzhkivka and Russian gains near Sloviansk.
Even so, the institute wrote that the war's fifth year "is not beginning well for Moscow".
Pope Leo XIV raised the plight of civilians in occupied Oleshky with Vladimir Putin by telephone on 16 October, and the Kremlin says they agreed to cooperate on supplies.
Pope Leo XIV raised the plight of civilians in Oleshky, an occupied town in Ukraine's Kherson region, with Vladimir Putin by telephone on 16 October. The Kremlin says the two agreed to cooperate on supplies.
Oleshky sits on the Russian-held left bank of the Dnipro, opposite Ukrainian-held Kherson city. The Kremlin readout spoke of beginning vital supplies to the town.
Ukraine's parliament voted on 15 October to charge value added tax on parcels from abroad, by 252 votes, and passed a customs law by 249.
Parcels sent to Ukraine from abroad are to carry value added tax. The Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament, passed the law on 15 October with 252 votes, and a customs law passed with 249.
The Rada counted both among its laws bringing Ukraine closer to European Union rules. They also raise money for a state still short of funds.
Up on the ground and at sea; down in US economic pressure on Russia. Russia fired more than 850 drones on 14-15 October, Ukraine hit a Ryazan refinery and Borisoglebsk air base on 15 October, and drones sank HS Dignity off Bulgaria. The next military hinge is NATO's answer to Bulgaria's 16 October request for aircraft, air defence and counter-drone systems: a deployment would put alliance assets over the waters where HS Dignity sank. The economic hinge is section 4(d): if the President or the Secretary of State lifts the waiver for any of the five largest buyers, the 100% duty applies without a new vote in Congress.
