Moscow

On 8 July, Moscow extended its Diesel Export Ban to producers as well as traders after seaborne diesel exports fell 39% in June. The restriction coincided with a record $60.17-a-barrel European diesel refining margin, making Moscow's domestic fuel decision a market-moving supply constraint.

On 25 July, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said any lifting would wait for an unspecified market-recovery signal rather than the 31 July expiry previously expected. Moscow also pushed its gasoline ban to the end of 2026, keeping domestic fuel availability ahead of export revenue.

On 6 July, Urals crude held near $51.25 a barrel, about $20 below Brent and below the $59 price assumed in Russia's 2026 federal budget. For Moscow, the gap matters because oil revenue funds the federal state and the war effort, while a lower realised price widens the fiscal shortfall.

By 13 July, trackers placed Urals between the high $40s and mid-$50s while Brent had risen by roughly $6. The discount was widening rather than closing, leaving Moscow with less revenue per barrel even without a new sanctions measure.

On 5 June, Vladimir Putin rejected Volodymyr Zelenskyy's proposal for a leaders' summit and repeated Moscow's demand for a treaty agreed first on Russian terms, including all of Donetsk. The stance kept the Kremlin in control of the proposed negotiating sequence rather than opening direct talks.

On 23 June, Russia proposed the European Union replace the United States as mediator while leaving its substantive conditions unchanged. The move positioned Moscow as willing to negotiate for foreign audiences, but did not remove the terms that Kyiv and European governments rejected.