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Cuba
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Cuba

Caribbean socialist state under US embargo; President and CUPET both now on OFAC SDN list.

Cuba went dark island-wide at 22:43 on 2 August, its sixth total blackout of 2026 and eleventh since late 2024; grid operator UNE blamed a Havana substation fault that tripped the Felton plant, while other accounts cited storm damage on a transmission line.

Last refreshed: 4 August 2026 · Appears in 4 active topics

Key Question

Can Cuba survive US sanctions on its president and its oil company simultaneously?

Timeline for Cuba

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Background

Cuba is a one-party socialist state under the Communist Party, governed since 2019 by President Miguel Diaz-Canel, and has operated under a US embargo since 1962. Its economy is heavily statised and dominated by GAESA, the military conglomerate that controls roughly 60 per cent of hard-currency revenue. With a population of approximately 11.1 million, the island consumes 90,000 to 110,000 barrels of fuel a day against domestic production of only 40,000, leaving it structurally dependent on Russian and Venezuelan crude that has itself become unreliable.

Decreto 160, which took effect on 4 August, replaced a list of 125 banned private-sector activities, removing 46 and relaxing 35 more, flipping the regulatory default from listed-and-permitted to permitted-unless-banned . Education, medicine, mass media and trade unions remain closed to private activity regardless, and no private-bank licence has yet been issued under the parallel banking reform opened in June.

Cuba's international position runs on parallel tracks: a Vatican-mediated humanitarian channel sits alongside a US sanctions regime built on Executive Orders 14380 and 14404, while the government's own account of events routinely diverges from Washington's and from independent monitors' . That gap between rival accounts, not any single admitted fact, defines how most 2026 crises on the island get reported.

Key Issues
Power grid crisis

The grid failed for a sixth time

Cuba lost power nationwide at 22:43 on 2 August, its sixth full blackout of 2026 and eleventh since late 2024. state utility UNE named a fault inside a Havana substation as the trigger, which tripped the Felton plant in Holguin; other reporting pointed instead to storm damage on a transmission line, an inconsistency that has not been resolved .

The failure landed on a fleet already stretched thin: Antonio Guiteras, the island's largest generating unit, had broken down for the 20th time that year less than a fortnight earlier, and seven further thermal units were offline when the fault hit . With that little reserve Left in the system, a single new failure was enough to take the whole island dark.

Sanctions campaign

Sanctions record ran ahead of disclosure

Washington's Cuba sanctions turned out to run further back than anyone knew: paperwork made public on 31 July showed measures against the island dated from as early as 7 May, weeks before the public was told. Among them, GAESA, the military conglomerate controlling roughly 60 per cent of hard-currency revenue, had already been blacklisted well before the subsidiary-level actions against its port, bank and hotel fund that became public earlier in the summer ; whether the delayed disclosure was deliberate is not established.

Havana keeps rejecting the campaign's framing rather than engaging its detail. On 2 August foreign minister Bruno Rodriguez Parrilla dismissed Secretary of State Marco Rubio's description of Cuba as a security threat, continuing a standoff that has run since January, when Executive Order 14380 first declared a national emergency over the island .

Common Questions
How many political prisoners does Cuba hold as of July 2026?
Prisoners Defenders' 9 July 2026 census recorded 1,306 political prisoners, up from 1,281 in June, including 40 detained minors, 16 of them held in adult facilities.Source: cuba-dispatch U11
Why did Cuba's national grid collapse twice in July 2026?
A 220kV transmission line between Santa Clara and Sancti Spiritus failed on 10 July, and the Felton unit 1 thermal plant tripped on 14 July, the third and fourth total grid collapses of 2026; UNE's 16 July bulletin recorded a 2,240 MW forecast deficit.Source: cuba-dispatch U11
How many Cuban entities did the US sanction on 13 July 2026?
The State Department designated ten more Cuban entities under Executive Order 14404 on 13 July 2026, its largest single-day batch since 18 May, marking the campaign's first use of forced-labour-to-Angola and tourism-sector rationales.Source: cuba-dispatch U11
How much did Cuba raise cooking gas prices in July 2026?
Cuba's Ministry of Finance and Prices raised the price of a 10kg bottled cooking-gas cylinder 64 per cent, from 213 to 350 CUP, under Resolution 155/2026, effective 16 July 2026, reaching 1,707,763 contracted customers.Source: cuba-dispatch U11
Are there protests in Cuba in 2026?
Yes. On the nights of 3 and 4 June 2026, residents of Havana and Guanabacoa staged cacerolazo protests — the first confirmed capital protests of the current escalation — in response to gas, water and electricity failures.Source: event
Why is Cuba running out of gas and water in 2026?
Cuban fuel imports have collapsed since November 2025 when Venezuelan crude supply ended. With domestic production only meeting about 40% of demand, fuel shortages have cascaded into gas distribution, water pumping, and milk delivery failures by June 2026.Source: event
Why did Visa and Mastercard stop working in Cuba?
Visa and Mastercard suspended Cuban-issued cards in early June 2026 as their correspondent banks retreated from GAESA-linked exposure ahead of the 5 June OFAC wind-down Deadline, leaving Cuban households and visitors unable to make card payments.Source: event
What is the current Cuban peso exchange rate?
The Informal USD/CUP rate reached a record 600 pesos per dollar on 4 June 2026, up from 568 on 26 May — a 5.6% depreciation in nine days. EUR/CUP also hit 680.Source: event
What is GAESA and why does the US want to shut it down?
GAESA is Cuba's military conglomerate that controls roughly 60% of the island's hard-currency revenue. The US targets it because sanctioning GAESA starves the Cuban state of income without granting relief to the civilian population.Source: event
What is Executive Order 14404 on Cuba?
EO 14404 was signed by President Trump on 1 May 2026 and numbered formally that week. It authorises personal SDN designations against Cuban officials and their adult relatives; the first designee was Ania Guillermina Lastres Morera on 7 May 2026. It operates in parallel with EO 14380's secondary-tariff fuel architecture.Source: Federal Register
Did Marco Rubio meet the Pope about Cuba?
Yes. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a 45-minute audience with Pope Leo XIV at the Holy See on 9 May 2026, covering Cuba and Venezuela. The meeting produced a US proposal to route humanitarian aid to Cuba through the Catholic Church rather than through GAESA or state channels.Source: Vatican / State Department
When did Venezuelan oil supply to Cuba actually stop?
Cuban Energy Minister Vicente de la O Levy confirmed on 13 May 2026 that Venezuelan crude shipments to Cuba had stopped in November 2025, four months before the 18 March 2026 PDVSA carve-out previously framed as the proximate cause.Source: Vicente de la O Levy, Mesa Redonda
How much fuel does Cuba consume each day?
Cuba consumes 90,000 to 110,000 Barrels Per Day against domestic production of 40,000 Barrels Per Day, leaving a 50,000-70,000 barrel daily import requirement now squeezed by the loss of Venezuelan supply since November 2025.Source: Vicente de la O Levy, Mesa Redonda 13 May 2026
Why did Cuba's national grid fragment on 14 May 2026?
The Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric plant suffered a boiler-leak failure at 04:58, its ninth 2026 outage, triggering the SEN to split east of Ciego de Ávila at 06:09. Granma, Santiago de Cuba and Guantánamo ran on local microsystems for several hours.Source: Granma / UNE
Did Cuba release any political prisoners in its 2026 amnesties?
No. Amnesty International, OCDH, and Prisoners Defenders all verified that neither the 51-prisoner pardon (13 March) nor the 2,010-prisoner pardon (2 April) included any prisoners of conscience. Cuba's penal code explicitly excludes 'crimes against authority' — the category used to prosecute dissidents — from pardons.Source: Amnesty International / OCDH
How does Cuba's central grid prioritise electricity during blackouts?
Cuba's grid dispatches centrally from large thermal plants and protects the capital's load profile when fuel is rationed. Eastern provinces — Holguín, Granma, Santiago de Cuba — absorb the deficit first, sustaining 24-hour outages while Havana runs blackout-free.Source: Cuba Dispatch
Is Cuba's electricity situation improving in April 2026?
Partially. The grid deficit fell from 1,732 MW on 15 April to a forecast 1,365-1,395 MW by 26 April after the Camilo Cienfuegos refinery restarted. However, improvements are concentrated in Havana; eastern provinces absorbed 24-hour daily outages over the same period.Source: Cuba Dispatch
What happened at the US-Cuba Havana talks in April 2026?
A US State Department aircraft made the first US government landing in Havana since 2016 on 10 April 2026. Under-director Garcia del Toro confirmed the talks publicly on 21 April as 'respectful and professional'. A two-week dissident-release Deadline set during the talks lapsed on 24 April with zero releases.Source: Cuba Dispatch
What is OFAC General Licence 134B and why does Cuba benefit?
GL 134B, issued 18 April 2026, extends cover for Russian crude transactions loaded before 17 April through 16 May. It covers the Sovcomflot tanker Universal bound for Matanzas, allowing Cuba to continue receiving Russian oil under a temporary OFAC window.Source: OFAC
How many Cuban prisoners were released in the 2026 talks?
The Cuban government stated more than 2,000 prisoners freed by 3 April 2026, though monitors confirmed no political prisoners were included.Source: Díaz-Canel / OCDH
Is Russia still supplying oil to Cuba in 2026?
Yes. A Russian tanker docked in Havana on 31 March 2026 with roughly 730,000 barrels; a second vessel was being loaded.Source: Russian Energy Ministry
What is EO 14380 and how does it affect Cuba?
EO 14380, signed 29 January 2026, declared a national emergency over Cuba and authorised secondary tariffs on any country selling fuel to Cuba.Source: White House / UN Special Rapporteurs
Why is Cuba having so many power cuts in 2026?
US EO 14380 imposed secondary sanctions on fuel suppliers, cutting imports. The grid generates less than half of peak demand, causing 12+ hour blackouts.Source: UNE / US Treasury
Is there a diplomatic channel between Cuba and the United States in 2026?
Yes, two tracks run in parallel. A formal US-Cuba bilateral channel opened in April 2026 with a State Department visit to Havana. A Vatican humanitarian channel emerged after Secretary Rubio met Pope Leo XIV in May. A third back-channel, via a Cuban general's meeting with SOUTHCOM on 29 May 2026, confirmed military-to-military contact was also underway.Source: cuba-dispatch U7
What caused the blackouts and protests in Cuba in 2026?
Cuba's grid runs a structural deficit of over 1,000 MW because ageing Soviet-era power stations depend on oil Cuba cannot reliably import. US sanctions under EO 14380 and EO 14404 cut off Venezuelan and Russian crude supply routes, deepening the shortage. By June 2026 gas, water, and electricity had all failed simultaneously in Havana, triggering the first capital protests of the crisis.Source: cuba-dispatch background
Why did the United States sanction Cuba's oil company in 2026?
On 11 June 2026 OFAC designated CUPET, Cuba's state oil company, under EO 14404. CUPET controls all Cuban oil imports via its ports, customs licences, and purchasing infrastructure, so the designation closed the private-buyer loophole that earlier Venezuela licences had technically created.Source: cuba-dispatch U7
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