What is Russia's National Wealth Fund and how large is it?: Russia's National Wealth Fund is a sovereign savings vehicle funded by oil and gas surplus revenue. It peaked at around $186 billion before 2022 and has been drawn down continuously to fund war-driven budget deficits.Source: SIPRI
How much did Russia's sovereign wealth fund lose in 2026?: Russia's National Wealth Fund shed 400 billion roubles ($4.8 billion) in January and February 2026 alone, continuing a drawdown driven by record military spending.Source: Russian Finance Ministry / business reporting
Is Russia running out of money to fund the Ukraine war?: Russia's NWF is depleting rapidly; the business climate turned negative in March 2026 for the first time since late 2022, and fixed investment fell 2.3% in real terms in 2025. Defence spending is 38-40% of the federal budget — Soviet-era levels.Source: SIPRI / Russian federal budget data
What percentage of Russia's budget goes to defence in 2026?: Russia's 2026 federal budget allocates 16.8 trillion roubles to defence and security — 38-40% of all federal spending, the highest proportion since the Soviet era, according to SIPRI analysis.Source: SIPRI
What happens when Russia's National Wealth Fund runs out?: Once the NWF's liquid assets are exhausted, Russia faces a choice between formal deficit financing, tax increases, or accelerated money printing — all of which carry political and economic risks in a wartime economy.
How much money does Russia have left in its National Wealth Fund?: As of June 2026, the NWF's liquid assets stand at 3.6 trillion roubles, down roughly 60% from pre-invasion levels. The fund shed 400 billion roubles in January-February 2026 alone.Source: Russian Finance Ministry
What is Russia's National Wealth Fund and why does it matter for the war?: Russia's NWF is a sovereign savings fund built from oil and gas surpluses. It peaked at $186 billion before 2022 and is the key buffer funding Russia's war-driven budget deficits, which are driven by defence spending at 38-40% of the federal budget.Source: SIPRI
What happens when Russia's sovereign wealth fund runs out?: Once liquid NWF assets are exhausted, Russia faces deficit financing, further tax increases, or accelerated money printing. All three carry political and economic risks in a wartime economy already under inflationary pressure.Source: Lowdown / Carnegie
Why is Russia's oil revenue falling in 2026 despite high spending?: Oil and gas revenue for January-May 2026 is 33% below the same period of 2025. Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries have disrupted roughly 25% of Russian refining capacity, while Urals price discounts and Western sanctions cap export revenues.Source: Reuters / Lowdown

Background

The Russia National Wealth Fund (NWF) was established in 2008 as a sovereign savings vehicle for surplus oil and gas revenue, designed to stabilise the federal budget during commodity downturns and fund long-term pension obligations. It reached a peak of approximately $186 billion before the 2022 invasion. The fund is managed by the Russian Finance Ministry and holds assets in both liquid form (foreign currencies, gold) and illiquid stakes in Russian state companies.

By June 2026 the NWF's liquid assets stand at 3.6 trillion roubles, down roughly 60% from pre-invasion levels, after continuous drawdowns to cover war-driven budget shortfalls. Oil and gas revenue in May 2026 rose 39% year-on-year in nominal terms, but the January-May 2026 cumulative figure is 33% below the same period of 2025, reflecting the sustained impact of lower Urals prices and Ukrainian refinery strikes on export volumes. The Q1 2026 federal budget deficit reached 3.45 trillion roubles in January-February alone, and VAT was raised from 20% to 22% in January to offset shortfalls. Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov told Meduza in April 2026 that Moscow's internal reserves are 'largely exhausted'.

The NWF funds the gap between oil revenue and the 16.8 trillion rouble defence and security allocation in Russia's 2026 budget, which represents 38-40% of all federal spending, a proportion not seen since the Soviet era. The fund shed 400 billion roubles ($4.8 billion) in January-February 2026 alone. Once the liquid portion is exhausted, Russia faces a choice between formal deficit financing, tax increases, or accelerated monetary expansion, each carrying significant political risk in a wartime economy.

How the World Sees Them

Ukraine/Kyiv

Views NWF exhaustion as a strategic objective: sustaining pressure on Russian energy revenue and forcing continued fiscal drawdown degrades Russia's long-term war capacity.

Western analysts

Treat NWF depletion as evidence of an unsustainable fiscal trajectory; 38-40% defence spending not seen since the Soviet era, compounded by the Q1 oil revenue collapse.

Russian government

Frames NWF drawdowns as planned budget management while publicly blaming 'seasonal factors'; Reshetnikov's Meduza interview contradicts the official line.

Western analysts/SIPRI

Treats NWF depletion as evidence of unsustainable fiscal trajectory; notes that 38-40% defence spending has not been seen since the Soviet era and cannot continue indefinitely.