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Iran-Israel-US Conflict 2026
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Event

Iran-Israel-US Conflict 2026

2026 Israel-Iran-US war, now stalled between eight rounds of unsigned Hormuz talks and mass executions.

The war Israel and the United States opened against Iran on 28 February 2026 cut Gulf shipping to single-digit daily transits within a fortnight, and on 11 March the IEA called it the largest oil disruption in history.

Last refreshed: 18 October 2026 · Appears in 2 active topics

Key Question

Is the Iran-Israel-US war actually ending, or just stuck at the negotiating table?

Timeline for Iran-Israel-US Conflict 2026

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Background

The Iran-Israel-US Conflict 2026 is a regional war between Iran on one side and Israel and the United States on the other, with Hezbollah and Hamas among the principal belligerents. It began on 28 February 2026 and spans Iran, Israel, Lebanon, The Gulf states and the strait of Hormuz. It has since stalled between eight rounds of Hormuz talks that produced no signed text and a wave of mass executions inside Iran.

The war grew out of a long Israeli-Iranian proxy confrontation and disputes over Iran's nuclear programme. Iranian missiles and drones reached Israel and The Gulf: the UAE alone intercepted 1,919 projectiles in the first 17 days. Israel's 91st Division crossed into southern Lebanon on 13 March, reopening a ground front against Hezbollah.

The human and financial costs came fast. About 3.2 million Iranians were displaced in the first fortnight, and displacement in Lebanon passed 800,000 by 11 March. CSIS put the US cost of the campaign at nearly $900 million a day.

Key Issues
Oil supply

The war choked global oil flows

On 11 March the International Energy Agency called the war's oil disruption the largest in history. Its record release of 400 million barrels from reserves did not hold prices below $100.

By 15 March Gulf transits had fallen to single digits a day against a pre-war average of 138. Brent closed that Friday at $103.14, with Monday futures pointing to $104.89-106.44, the war's highest sustained range and about 50% above the pre-war price. The closure of the strait of Hormuz turned a regional war into a price shock for every import-dependent economy.

Hormuz security

Allies refused the Hormuz escort

By 15 March Donald Trump's call for allied warships to escort shipping through the strait of Hormuz had drawn zero pledges. Australia, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany and France all declined to send warships for the escort mission he had demanded of them.

On 16 March Trump answered that leaving NATO was "something to think about". Germany's foreign minister replied: "We will not participate in this conflict." The refusals left the United States to fight the maritime side of the war without an allied naval force.

Common Questions
Is the Strait of Hormuz still closed in April 2026?
As of mid-April 2026, the strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to oil tankers. Iran declared it open briefly on 17 April but closed it again within 24 hours. Mines remain in the water according to IRGC statements.Source: Lowdown Iran Conflict briefing (seq 72)
What is the Islamabad Accord and did it end the war?
The Islamabad Accord is a Pakistan-brokered Ceasefire framework assembled in early April 2026 calling for an immediate halt followed by a 15-to-20-day settlement period. As of mid-April, no signed instrument has emerged and Iran struck Gulf states on ceasefire Day 1.Source: Lowdown Iran Conflict briefing (seq 60)
How did Russia benefit from the 2026 Iran war?
Russia's fossil fuel revenues rose 14% above February averages in the first two weeks of the conflict as global buyers pivoted back to Russian supply, earning approximately €510 million per day according to CREA and Urgewald analysis.Source: CREA / Urgewald analysis, Lowdown Russia-Ukraine seq 5
How has the 2026 Iran war affected oil prices?
The IEA called it the largest supply disruption in global oil market history. Brent Crude peaked above $116 per barrel (from $67 pre-war). Gulf export terminals were struck and Hormuz transit collapsed from 20 million bpd to a trickle.Source: IEA March Oil Market Report / Lowdown seq 33
What started the Iran-Israel-US war in 2026?
Joint US-Israeli airstrikes struck five Iranian cities on the night of 28 February 2026, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and triggering Iran's Strait of Hormuz blockade and Gulf missile campaign.Source: Lowdown Iran Conflict briefing (seq 2)
Source Material

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Updated 18 October 2026. Editorial standards.