What started the Iran-Israel-US war in 2026?: Joint US-Israeli airstrikes struck five Iranian cities on the night of 28 February 2026, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and triggering Iran's Strait of Hormuz blockade and Gulf missile campaign.Source: Lowdown Iran Conflict briefing (seq 2)
Is the Strait of Hormuz still closed in April 2026?: As of mid-April 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to oil tankers. Iran declared it open briefly on 17 April but closed it again within 24 hours. Mines remain in the water according to IRGC statements.Source: Lowdown Iran Conflict briefing (seq 72)
How has the 2026 Iran war affected oil prices?: The IEA called it the largest supply disruption in global oil market history. Brent Crude peaked above $116 per barrel (from $67 pre-war). Gulf export terminals were struck and Hormuz transit collapsed from 20 million bpd to a trickle.Source: IEA March Oil Market Report / Lowdown seq 33
What is the Islamabad Accord and did it end the war?: The Islamabad Accord is a Pakistan-brokered Ceasefire framework assembled in early April 2026 calling for an immediate halt followed by a 15-to-20-day settlement period. As of mid-April, no signed instrument has emerged and Iran struck Gulf States on Ceasefire Day 1.Source: Lowdown Iran Conflict briefing (seq 60)
How did Russia benefit from the 2026 Iran war?: Russia's fossil fuel revenues rose 14% above February averages in the first two weeks of the conflict as global buyers pivoted back to Russian supply, earning approximately €510 million per day according to CREA and Urgewald analysis.Source: CREA / Urgewald analysis, Lowdown Russia-Ukraine seq 5

Background

Israel, Iran, the United States, Hezbollah, and Hamas remain the principal belligerents in a war that has fundamentally reshaped the Middle East since 28 February 2026. As of mid-April, a Pakistan-brokered Ceasefire framework — the Islamabad Accord, agreed in principle on 8 April — has produced neither a signed instrument nor Strait of Hormuz reopening. Iran struck five Gulf states on ceasefire Day 1 , exposing how FAR command authority over the IRGC has drifted from civilian hands. The Lebanon ground theatre and Iranian territorial strikes remain active; over 3.2 million Iranians and 800,000 Lebanese civilians have been internally displaced. Combat costs run to approximately $900 million per day (CSIS).

The conflict began in the early hours of 28 February 2026 when joint US-Israeli airstrikes struck Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah in a single night — the first simultaneous Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon and direct territorial strikes on Iran in four decades of proxy warfare. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening strikes. US B-2 bombers hit hardened underground nuclear facilities at Natanz and Fordow using 2,000-lb penetrating munitions. Iran retaliated by closing the Strait of Hormuz on Day 2 and fully activating its Decentralised Mosaic Defence doctrine on Day 5, restructuring the IRGC into 31 autonomous provincial commands authorised to strike independently.

The conflict's consequences extend well beyond the immediate theatre. The IEA called it the largest supply disruption in the history of global oil markets , with Brent peaking above $116 and Gulf export terminals disrupted. Russian fossil fuel revenues rose 14% above February averages within the first two weeks of the conflict as sanctions-eroded buyers pivoted back to Russian supply . China transits Hormuz freely under an Iran-granted exemption; every other buyer faces either blocked passage or the IRGC's informal toll corridor. Watch: Ceasefire renewal talks (Islamabad format, Pakistan-only Mediation), Hormuz insurance-market reopening signals, and whether the nuclear monitoring concession secured by Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir on 16 April survives into a formal IAEA framework.