YouGov

YouGov's fieldwork of 19-20 July put Reform UK on 23% and Labour on 20%, barely moved from its pre-Burnham numbers, directly contradicting Deltapoll's 17-20 July survey that had Labour up eight points to 28%, level with Reform.

The gap follows a five-week Reform plateau that broke only in YouGov's own 12-13 July fieldwork, when Reform slipped a single point to 24% and the Conservatives and Labour tied at 19%. Two rival methodologies now put Burnham's opening bounce anywhere between zero and eight points, a divergence YouGov's own panel has yet to resolve.

YouGov's final Senedd MRP projected Plaid Cymru on 43 seats and Welsh Labour on just 12, the lowest Welsh Labour share since 1906. The 7 May result vindicated the call: Welsh Labour collapsed to 9 seats, ending 27 years of continuous devolved government under one party.

The projection is now the reference point Welsh strategists use to judge every subsequent poll, a status that rests on the same MRP method that correctly called the 2017 general election when most rivals failed. For YouGov, Wales was the clearest single test of whether that 2017 credibility still holds nine years on, and it did.

YouGov found in March 2026 that 58% of Britons opposed US use of UK bases for strikes on Iran, against 21% support, a wider margin than the pollster recorded before the 2003 Iraq invasion at a comparable point.

Prime Minister Starmer overrode his own attorney general's advice and granted base access days later without a Commons vote, leaving YouGov's finding as the only public measure of domestic consent for a decision Parliament never approved. The poll remains the domestic-opinion benchmark cited whenever the base-access decision resurfaces.