24SEP

Marist poll puts Turek ahead in Iowa

2 min read

11:45UTC

Sabato moved Iowa's open Senate seat to Toss-up as Marist put Democrat Josh Turek ahead of Ashley Hinson 50-42, the first poll to show him leading.

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Key takeaway

Iowa's open Senate seat is now a toss-up at Sabato, with rival polls 13 points apart.

Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Iowa's Senate race from Leans Republican to Toss-up on 22 September, for the open seat Joni Ernst is vacating⁠¹. The same day a Marist poll put Democratic state Representative Josh Turek ahead of Republican Representative Ashley Hinson 50-42 among registered voters, the first survey of the race to show the Democrat leading⁠².

Iowa's polls disagree sharply. Emerson College Polling had Hinson ahead 50-45 in a survey the same month, so the two readings sit 13 points apart on the margin. Sabato weighed the Marist result alongside other polls that still show Hinson ahead by four or five points. Its batch came against the backdrop of a president whose approval reached a record low in August.

Hinson holds Donald Trump's endorsement and a fundraising edge, and she was the NRSC's second-largest coordinated beneficiary in August. No Going Back PAC has not yet spent in the race, which leaves the party committee carrying the Republican effort in a seat Sabato now calls even.

Sabato also moved Iowa's 1st District, where Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks faces Democrat Christina Bohannan, out of the toss-up column to Leans Democratic. Two Iowa races therefore moved towards Democrats in a single batch.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Iowa's Senate race has just been reclassified from 'leaning Republican' to 'too close to call' by Sabato's Crystal Ball, after a poll from Marist found Democrat Josh Turek ahead of Republican Ashley Hinson 50% to 42%, the first poll all year to show the Democrat in front. Turek is a state lawmaker and two-time Paralympic gold medallist in wheelchair basketball; Hinson is the sitting congresswoman running for the open seat.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Cook Political Report pulled Iowa Senate to Lean Republican back on 3 June, citing farm-price pain tied to the Iran conflict.

The Marist Poll showing Turek ahead is the first data point suggesting that pressure has continued to erode Ashley Hinson's position rather than stabilising, which would explain a move in the opposite direction five months later.

What could happen next?

Risk
A single-poll-triggered rating change, with a contrary Emerson result in the same window, risks overstating how settled Iowa's race actually is until further polling either confirms or contradicts the Marist result.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Consensus view: One reading flags the Marist Poll's 50-42 Turek lead as the first survey this cycle to show Ashley Hinson trailing, a genuine outlier against a field that had otherwise kept Iowa in Republican-leaning territory since Crystal Ball moved it there in early June.

Counter-view: An Emerson poll from a similar window showed a tighter race than Marist's 8-point gap, consistent with the pattern seen in Michigan and Georgia this briefing, where different pollsters' house effects are producing meaningfully different Iowa toplines from the same underlying electorate.

Key tension: Whether Marist's poll captures a genuine late shift toward Josh Turek or is the single outlier a Crystal Ball rating change should not have been triggered by, given Emerson's contrary read in the same period.

Sources:Sabato's Crystal Ball·MS NOW

Mentions:Sabato's Crystal Ball →Iowa →Josh Turek →Ashley Hinson →Marist →Emerson →Christina Bohannan →Donald Trump →Michigan →NO GOING BACK PAC INC. →Joni Ernst →Mariannette Miller-Meeks →Cook Political Report →Georgia (U.S. state) →

First Reported In

Update #18 · Republicans spend first, Democrats hold cash

Sabato's Crystal Ball· 24 Sept 2026

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