24SEP

Sabato and Cook widen Democrats' map

1 min read

11:45UTC

Sabato and Cook moved Kansas and South Carolina's Senate races, four governor's races and two more House seats towards Democrats between 22 and 23 September.

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Key takeaway

Raters are putting Republican-held Senate seats and governorships in play while Cook's core toss-ups hold.

Sabato's Crystal Ball moved three Senate, four governor and three House races towards Democrats on 22 September, citing "a persistently poor national environment for Republicans"⁠¹. Cook Political Report moved three Senate races a step towards Democrats a day later but left its seven core Toss Ups untouched⁠². Cook puts Democratic net gains anywhere from one seat to five, against the four they need for control. It had changed nothing in its 11 September House snapshot.

Kansas moved from Likely to Lean Republican at both raters. Sabato cited an Emerson poll with Democrat Hamilton ahead of Senator Roger Marshall 45-43. In South Carolina, Cook moved the special Senate election from Solid to Likely Republican, its first change since Darline Graham Nordone won the August runoff; she faces Democrat Annie Andrews. Both seats are held by Republicans, so each move widens the map Democrats can contest without touching Cook's core Toss Ups.

Among governors, Sabato moved Florida's open seat, which it had already shifted in July, and Greg Abbott's Texas from Likely to Leans Republican. Ohio, where Vivek Ramaswamy faces Amy Acton, and Joe Lombardo's Nevada each dropped a step, to Toss-up. The Ohio move lands in the state where Republican party and super PAC money for the Senate race has been heaviest.

In the House, Sabato moved Florida's 27th District from Likely to Leans Republican and added Texas's 9th District, a majority-Latino seat Trump carried by 20 points, at Likely Republican. It had not previously rated the Texas seat at all.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Two of the main election forecasters, Sabato's Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report, moved a wide batch of ratings at once: Senate races in Kansas and South Carolina shifted a notch towards Democrats, as did governor's races in Florida, Texas, Ohio and Nevada, and House races in Iowa's 1st District, Florida's 27th District and Texas's 9th District.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

A batch of ratings moving in the same direction across Senate, governor and House races at once, rather than a single race shifting on its own news, usually tracks a national environment measure such as a generic congressional ballot average moving.

Forecasters like Sabato's Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report recalibrate multiple contests together when the underlying partisan-lean assumption they share changes, rather than reassessing each race in isolation.

First Reported In

Update #18 · Republicans spend first, Democrats hold cash

Sabato's Crystal Ball· 24 Sept 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Graham Nordone takes the Senate runoff

Nordone's runoff win in August created the general-election matchup Cook has now moved towards Republicans.

Occurred 25 Aug 2026

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Sabato moves three races for governor

Sabato had already moved Florida's governor's race in July; this update's batch extends that earlier movement.

Occurred 22 Jul 2026

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Cook moves nothing, ballot stays flat

Cook's 11 September snapshot left House ratings unchanged; this update's House moves are new since then.

Occurred 11 Sept 2026

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This Event

Sabato and Cook widen Democrats' map

The ratings now put Republican-held seats in play without changing the core Senate toss-ups that decide control.

Different Perspectives

Missouri and Secretary of State Denny Hoskins

Missouri and Hoskins, held in contempt by the state's own supreme court on 10 September for prematurely reverting to HB 1, filed against a pause of the 8th Circuit's order restoring the same 2025 map.

Richard von Glahn and People Not Politicians

Von Glahn and People Not Politicians filed emergency application 26A388 on 22 September asking Justice Kavanaugh to pause the 8th Circuit's order restoring the 2025 map, days after Missouri mailed overseas ballots under the 2022 lines. A refusal to pause it would leave those ballots carrying the wrong districts.

Harmeet Dhillon, Justice Department

Dhillon said the department will send about 1,000 election monitors to Nevada, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island in November, calling it "the biggest DOJ election observer effort in history" and citing "67 election-related indictments and convictions" against 13 under the Biden administration.

National Association for the Advancement of Colored People and co-plaintiffs

The NAACP and eight other groups sued DHS in Washington on 18 September to keep ICE away from polling places, citing federal statutes barring armed officers and troops at elections. The suit follows a released 2025 DHS email listing non-English-language voting jurisdictions beside a Justice Department prosecution checklist.

Cook Political Report

Cook wrote that "the amount of money national Republicans have dedicated to this race is a flashing red light for Democrats" when it moved New Hampshire from Lean Democrat to Toss Up on 15 September, citing the NRSC's $5.18m for Sununu. It is the one state where Republican spending and the rating move the same direction.

Democratic Senate strategists

Strategists note the DSCC held a $37.6m cash lead over the NRSC's $18.7m at the end of August, after coordinating just $1.00m of spending itself. One reading holds the committee is banking that cash for the campaign's final weeks rather than matching Republican spending dollar-for-dollar in August.