24SEP

Cook moves New Hampshire towards Sununu

2 min read

11:45UTC

Cook shifted New Hampshire's Senate race from Lean Democrat to Toss Up on 15 September, calling Republican spending there a flashing red light for Democrats.

← Back to Republicans spend first, Democrats hold cash Jump to analysis ↓

PoliticsAssessed

Key takeaway

Cook moved New Hampshire towards Republicans, the one state where their party money and ratings align.

Cook Political Report moved New Hampshire's Senate contest out of Lean Democrat and into Toss Up on 15 September, a shift towards Republicans⁠¹. Republican John E. Sununu, a former US senator who served from 2003 to 2008, faces Democratic Representative Chris Pappas for the seat Jeanne Shaheen is leaving.

Cook tied the move to money, writing that "the amount of money national Republicans have dedicated to this race is a flashing red light for Democrats". It also conceded that the race "could still move back in Democrats' direction before Election Day". The filings show that spending. Sununu received the fourth-biggest share of the Republican committee's August coordination, and New Hampshire was among the five Senate races No Going Back PAC funded in its latest week.

That makes New Hampshire the one state where the NRSC's August money and a rating move point the same way. Cook framed the contest as a test of whether Sununu's own brand can escape the drag of Trump's unpopularity.

New Hampshire held its 8 September primary under a student-ID exclusion that a federal judge declined to block, while leaving the general election open to a different ruling.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

New Hampshire's Senate race has moved from 'leaning Democrat' to 'too close to call', according to the Cook Political Report, which pointed to Republican spending on John E. Sununu's campaign. He is trying to win back the seat he held from 2003 to 2009, running against Democrat Chris Pappas for the seat Jeanne Shaheen is vacating.

Sources:Cook Political Report

Mentions:Cook Political Report →New Hampshire →Hampshire →NO GOING BACK PAC INC. →Jeanne Shaheen →Chris Pappas →John E. Sununu →Chris Sununu →

First Reported In

Update #18 · Republicans spend first, Democrats hold cash

Cook Political Report· 24 Sept 2026

Read original →

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Cook Political Report

Cook wrote that "the amount of money national Republicans have dedicated to this race is a flashing red light for Democrats" when it moved New Hampshire from Lean Democrat to Toss Up on 15 September, citing the NRSC's $5.18m for Sununu. It is the one state where Republican spending and the rating move the same direction.

Democratic Senate strategists

Strategists note the DSCC held a $37.6m cash lead over the NRSC's $18.7m at the end of August, after coordinating just $1.00m of spending itself. One reading holds the committee is banking that cash for the campaign's final weeks rather than matching Republican spending dollar-for-dollar in August.