Day 60: Iran writes Phase 1; Washington still has no pen

Senator Lisa Murkowski did not file her Iran war authorisation bill by her own 28 April target. Congress.gov carried no AUMF bill number under her name at close of business, despite three Republican senators publicly backing it. The 60-day War Powers Resolution clock expires at 12:01 EDT on Friday 1 May with nothing on either chamber's docket.

Four previous Senate war-powers votes failed to produce any instrument. The missed filing means the legal clock expires the same way those votes did: with a public position and no paper behind it. Read full version ↓

OFAC's General License V, issued 24 April, is the only signed Iran document of the 60-day war. It gives Hengli Petrochemical in Dalian 30 days to wind down Iran-linked transactions before the licence expires on 24 May. Hengli denied any Iran trade; China's embassy called the designation illegal but Beijing held its response at embassy level.

China's State Council issued Decree No. 835 on 13 April, eleven days before the Hengli designation, creating a new sanctions counter-tool. Beijing has not activated it yet, but the 24 May deadline gives it a fixed trigger point. Read full version ↓

Israeli airstrikes killed at least 14 people in southern Lebanon on 26 April, breaking past the 10-kilometre buffer zone in the worst escalation since the 16 April truce began. The IDF issued forced-evacuation orders for seven towns north of the Litani River. Hezbollah said it would not stand down while Israel continues violations.

Evacuation orders north of the Litani announce the operational geography of a ground push. The Litani has been the functional northern boundary of Israeli security operations since the 1978 UNIFIL mandate; ordering civilians beyond it signals intent to operate in that space. Read full version ↓

Araghchi met Putin, Lavrov and GRU chief Igor Kostyukov at the Boris Yeltsin Presidential Library in St Petersburg on 27 April, not the Kremlin as first reported. Putin pledged Russia would do 'everything that serves your interests'; his aide Ushakov said Moscow would analyse signals from both the Americans and the Israelis.

The venue choice tells a precise story: a foreign minister received outside Moscow signals a partner relationship, not a co-belligerent one. Russia is positioning itself for the post-conflict order, not the conflict. Read full version ↓

Hengaw confirmed Iran executed Jafar Fakhrabadi at Yazd Central Prison on 27 April. His charges have not been published. Three co-defendants in the Ali Fahim case remain in solitary confinement at Ghezel Hesar Prison with high execution risk: Shahab Zahdi, Abolfazl Salehi Siavoshani and Yaser Rajaeifar.

Ali Fahim was executed on 6 April; Erfan Kiani followed on 25 April. Two executions from the same case at the same prison in 19 days, with three more defendants in solitary, shows the pattern is institutional rather than case-by-case. Read full version ↓

Brent Crude rose from $105.33 to $108.11 in two sessions on 25-27 April, the same window as Araghchi's three-capital diplomatic circuit. CENTCOM's blockade count rose from 33 to 38 vessels, the fastest two-session pace of the conflict. The LPG SEVAN, an Iranian-flagged tanker carrying liquefied petroleum gas, was seized in the Arabian Sea.

Oil rising during the most active diplomatic window of the war tells traders what the diplomacy cannot: the apparatus to receive Iran's offer does not appear to exist, and five naval intercepts in two days shows the operational tempo running ahead of the talking. Read full version ↓

Iran's internet shutdown reached its 60th consecutive day on 28 April at an estimated 1,440 cumulative hours, twelve times longer than any previous national shutdown on record. NetBlocks logged connectivity at 1-4 per cent of normal throughout.

Iranians cannot read the ceasefire text their own foreign minister handed to Pakistan or see the photographs of Araghchi shaking hands with Putin. The blackout means the government can claim any deal terms it wants domestically, with no population able to read the original text. Read full version ↓

China's State Council published Decree No. 835 on 13 April , eleven days before OFAC designated Hengli Petrochemical , creating a State Council-level counter-sanctions list with asset-freeze and entry-ban powers. Identification authority went to the Ministry of Justice, not the trade ministry (MOFCOM). The decree was not activated as of 28 April.

The Ministry of Justice routing is the structurally new element: it converts any future Chinese counter-designation from a trade dispute (subject to WTO challenge) into a domestic law-enforcement matter. That closes the Geneva escape route the US used after the 2018 tariff round. Read full version ↓