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US Midterms 2026
11NOV

Sabato's 11 moves include Kiggans's seat

2 min read
18:10UTC

Sabato's Crystal Ball moved 11 House races towards Democrats on 29 September, including three Virginia seats and a Missouri district reshaped by the Supreme Court's map order.

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Key takeaway

Sabato's Crystal Ball now puts Democrats five seats short of a House majority before Toss-ups.

Sabato's Crystal Ball, the race-rating newsletter of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, made 11 House rating changes on 29 September, all towards Democrats⁠1. It now counts 213 seats at least Leans Democratic, 202 at least Leans Republican and 20 Toss-ups. On seats leaning their way or better, Democrats sit five short of a House majority.

Three moves were in Virginia, where in-person voting opened on 18 September. Its 2nd District, held by Republican Jen Kiggans, went to Leans Democratic, the 1st to Toss-up and the 5th to Leans Republican. Sabato wrote that a Democratic win in the 5th would fit a 2006-style wave, the year Democrats gained 31 seats and The House in George W. Bush's second midterm.

Another move followed the Supreme Court's Missouri order. Sabato shifted Missouri's 2nd District, where Republican Ann Wagner faces Democrat Fred Wellman, from Likely to Leans Republican. It wrote that the order left Wagner in a "blue-trending Trump +8 seat", a district Trump won by eight points. The 2025 map, which the 8th Circuit had ordered on 21 September, would have given her a district he carried by 11.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Sabato's Crystal Ball is an elections newsletter from the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. It is separate from The Cook Political Report but rates races on a similar scale, from Safe to Likely to Leans, with Toss-up in the middle. On 29 September it moved 11 House races, every one towards Democrats. It now puts Democrats ahead in 213 seats. A party needs 218 to control The House, so Democrats are close but not there on this count. Three changes were in Virginia, where people have voted in person since 18 September. One was in Missouri, where the Supreme Court has just decided which district map the state will use.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Virginia is the first big test of turnout this autumn because in-person early voting opened there on 18 September. Raters can watch early turnout in a state with several Republican-held marginal seats before most states have opened polling places.

Missouri's move follows from the courts. The 8th Circuit had ordered the 2025 map, and the Supreme Court's 25 September order reversed it. Under the 2025 map, HB 1, the 2nd District would have been redrawn to a safer Republican seat; under the 2022 map it stays more competitive.

Escalation

Moving towards Democrats. Sabato's 11 moves came four days after Cook's 15, all in the same direction, and neither rater has moved a House seat towards Republicans in that stretch.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Missouri's 2nd District becomes a seat both parties may contest because the Supreme Court kept the 2022 lines.

  • Meaning

    Sabato's 213 and Cook's 208 both fall short of 218, so neither rater yet shows a Democratic majority in its leaning columns.

Sources:Sabato's Crystal Ball
Mentions:Sabato's Crystal Ball →Missouri's 2nd congressional district →Ann Wagner →Fred Wellman →Virginia →Virginia's 2nd congressional district →Jen Kiggans →Missouri →J. Miles Coleman →George W. Bush →Cook Political Report →Supreme Court of the United States →University of Virginia Center for Politics →Inside Elections →Virginia's 5th congressional district →Virginia's 1st congressional district →Elaine Luria →
First Reported In

Update #19 · Bulk voter citizenship checks are back

Sabato's Crystal Ball· 1 Oct 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
Caused by
Justices keep Missouri on its 2022 map
Sabato moved Missouri's 2nd District to Leans Republican after the order kept the 2022 map.
Occurred 25 Sept 2026
Read story →
This Event
Sabato's 11 moves include Kiggans's seat
A second rater now has Democrats within five seats of a House majority before any Toss-up is counted.
Led to
Cook and Sabato moves run to Democrats
Sabato's September House moves pointed the same way.
Occurred 14 Oct 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
University of Florida Election Lab
University of Florida Election Lab
The lab, run by Michael McDonald, estimates about 124.3 million ballots, a raw midterm record, and turnout of about 49.4% of eligible voters, second to 2018's 50.05%. The raw record reflects population growth more than a record rate, so the late count is working through a near-2018 electorate.
Thune's critics on the right, including Senator Ron Johnson
Thune's critics on the right, including Senator Ron Johnson
Ron Johnson backed the failed 31-15 motion to delay Thune's re-election, after activists such as Mike Cernovich blamed the leader for the defeat. Their complaint is that Republicans could have passed the SAVE Act; in January it meets a Democratic Senate instead.
Senator John Thune
Senator John Thune
Thune was re-elected Senate Republican leader by acclamation on 10 November after a motion to delay failed 31-15. He kept the filibuster that stopped the SAVE Act, the choice his critics on the right blame for the defeat.
House Republicans under Jim Jordan
House Republicans under Jim Jordan
House Republicans elected Jordan minority leader by 106 votes to 73 over Steve Scalise on 10 November, after Speaker Mike Johnson declined to run. They replaced the leadership that lost the majority, while Senate Republicans kept theirs.
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Trump asked on Truth Social on 9 November whether anybody believed the election "was honest" and blamed the machines, having told The New York Times on polling night he would accept the results. No Republican campaign had sued over a 2026 result by 10 November, so the claim has no case behind it.
Judge David O. Carter
Judge David O. Carter
Carter closed the Justice Department's suit over about 20,000 California mail ballots on 10 November after the department withdrew it, writing that the suit "attempted to disrupt an ongoing election". The closure leaves the department with no court order touching a 2026 California ballot.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.