Virginia's 5th congressional district
Central and Southside Virginia House district, including Charlottesville and Lynchburg, held by Republican John McGuire.
Central and Southside Virginia House seat held by Republican John McGuire. Sabato's Crystal Ball moved it to Leans Republican on 29 September 2026, writing that a Democratic win would fit a 2006-style wave; Democrat Tom Perriello is challenging.
Last refreshed: 1 October 2026
Would a Democratic win in Virginia's 5th signal a 2006-style wave?
Timeline for Virginia's 5th congressional district
Mentioned in: Sabato's 11 moves include Kiggans's seat
US Midterms 2026Background
Virginia's 5th District stretches across central and Southside Virginia, taking in Charlottesville, Lynchburg and Danville and a belt of counties from Fluvanna and Louisa to Halifax and Mecklenburg. Its boundaries date from December 2021, when Virginia's redistricting Commission deadlocked and the state's highest court took over, adopting lines two special masters had drawn. Democrats tried to redraw mid-decade in 2026; on 8 May that court voided the enabling constitutional amendment by four votes to three.
Republican John McGuire won the open seat in 2024 by 57.3% to 42.3%, having first beaten Representative Bob Good in that year's primary by 50.3% to 49.7%. Trump carried the district 55.6% to 43.4%.
In 2026 McGuire faces Democrat Tom Perriello and independent Cooke Harvey. Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted the seat to Leans Republican on 29 September, one of three Virginia moves in a batch of 11 House changes towards Democrats.