Sabato's Crystal Ball, Larry Sabato's forecast newsletter, now lists five Senate Toss Ups, all held by Republicans: Kansas, Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas. That is according to a summary of its 14 October update by Political Wire, a political news aggregator1. If every other race goes the way Sabato rates it, Republicans must win four of the five to keep control of the Senate; Democrats need two.
The House ratings point the same way. Since 1 October Cook Political Report, the race-rating newsletter, has moved about 29 House races, all towards Democrats: 18 around 9 October, by The Washington Post's report, and 11 more on 16 October, according to Newsmax, a conservative network, which listed Cook's changes2. That follows September batches with the same direction.
On 6 October Cook also moved New Hampshire's Senate race to Lean Democrat, reversing its September shift towards Republicans. It put possible Democratic gains at two to six seats; Democrats need a net gain of four to win the Senate.
In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, who would be the first Muslim US senator3, brought in $25.49m between July and September, against Republican Mike Rogers's $7.23m from 16 July45. Sabato moved that race to Leans Democratic in September. Cash leads have lost Senate races before: Jaime Harrison raised a record sum in South Carolina in 2020 and lost by ten points.
