Inside Elections
Inside Elections is a non-partisan US election forecasting service published through Roll Call that rates House, Senate, and gubernatorial races on a nine-point scale.
Inside Elections moved New Jersey's 7th district to Toss-up around 2 June 2026, despite Republican Tom Kean Jr holding a $3.4m to $764,000 cash lead, one of the first signs that the Democratic national lead was reaching incumbent-held seats.
Last refreshed: 1 October 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic
Why did Inside Elections call NJ-7 a Toss-up when Kean leads on cash four to one?
Timeline for Inside Elections
Mentioned in: Sabato's 11 moves include Kiggans's seat
US Midterms 2026Mentioned in: GOP-linked PACs meddle in Dem primary
US Midterms 2026moved NJ-7 to Toss-up rating
US Midterms 2026: NJ-7 moves to Toss-up as cash gap holdsMentioned in: Sabato moves six House seats toward Democrats
US Midterms 2026Mentioned in: Cook moves 5 Virginia seats on a voided map
US Midterms 2026Background
Inside Elections is a non-partisan forecasting service, published through Roll Call, that rates US House, Senate and governor races. Its ratings run on a nine-point scale with Toss-up at the centre and graded leans towards each party either side, so a single step can signal a meaningful change in the forecaster's view.
It is one of three services, with Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, whose ratings campaigns, party committees, donors and reporters treat as the baseline for judging which seats are in play. Moves by one are routinely read against the others; when Cook and Sabato shifted five Virginia seats in April 2026, both made the ratings conditional on a redistricting referendum surviving a court challenge.
The service matters because money follows ratings. A seat moved to Toss-up draws national party spending and outside groups, while a seat left at Likely is often written off. That makes each of its calls a factor in the race it describes, not only a forecast of it.
Its ratings moved ahead of the money
Inside Elections' most consequential 2026 call came around 2 June, when it rated New Jersey's 7th district a Toss-up. The incumbent, Tom Kean Jr, had $3.4m in the bank against $764,000 for Democrat Rebecca Bennett, and the seat had never before been rated below Likely Republican since its 2022 redraw.
The move put the service on record that The National environment, not fundraising, would decide marginal seats. Its rivals followed the same direction through the summer: by 29 September Sabato's Crystal Ball rated 213 seats at least leaning Democratic, five short of a majority. For Inside Elections, the test of the June call arrives on 3 November.
Who runs Inside Elections and how does it rate congressional races?
What does a Toss-up rating from Inside Elections mean?
Why did Inside Elections move New Jersey's 7th District to Toss-up in June 2026?
How is Inside Elections different from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball?
Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Updated 1 October 2026. Editorial standards.