Colom's Mississippi lead widens to 2,990

Scott Colom's lead over Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith reached 2,990 votes on Tuesday 10 November, after Rankin County finished scanning affidavit ballots (cast by voters whose ID or eligibility must still be confirmed) and absentee ballots just before 9pm, the Mississippi Free Press reported⁠¹. He led by roughly 65 to 100 when the count opened, and by 2,574 at 8:50pm on Friday 6 November on Associated Press figures relayed by Democracy Docket⁠². A Colom win would take Democrats to 55 Senate seats, and to 56 if Alaska's count also holds.

Hyde-Smith takes just over 61% of all votes in Rankin, a Republican suburban county, yet its affidavit ballots split 476 to her, 472 to Colom and 21 to Ty Pinkins⁠³. Her campaign said on 6 November that "thousands of votes remain to be counted from dozens of Republican counties"⁠⁴. If affidavit voters break level in her strongest suburban county, the late pool cannot close a gap near 3,000.

Republicans have moved from counting to contesting. On Thursday 5 November lawyers for Hyde-Smith's campaign sent all 82 counties a letter, released by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), that set three preservation directives, starting with keeping affidavit ballots apart from regular and absentee ones⁠⁵. Elias Law Group, Colom's counsel, replied that the demands have "no basis in Mississippi law"⁠⁶. Mike Hurst, who chairs the state party and is also general counsel to the Republican National Committee (RNC), said the party would "not hesitate to hold election officials accountable"⁠⁷. No lawsuit had been filed and Hyde-Smith had not conceded by 10 November. Mississippi recounts only on a court order, so preserved ballots are the raw material for any suit. Rejected mail ballots stay rejected, because the Secretary of State's office dropped its rule letting voters fix signature defects in August⁠⁸. Counties send certified returns on Friday 13 November.

Colom may also flip a seat on a fraction of the money spent elsewhere. He raised $4.40m to Hyde-Smith's $6.28m up to 14 October, Federal Election Commission (FEC) data shows, and outside groups had reported about $2.44m in the race⁠⁹. The largest sum, $1.42m against Hyde-Smith, came from AB PAC, a super political action committee (PAC) that may raise and spend without limit provided it does not coordinate with a campaign. Neither the Senate Leadership Fund nor Senate Majority PAC, the two parties' main Senate super PACs, appears in the processed data. Texas PAC alone reported $180.93m in Texas, and Democratic-side groups filed $67.97m in Iowa. On Lowdown's arithmetic, Mississippi's outside money came to about 1.35% of TEXAS PAC's sum. Colom said on 9 November that forecasters' "solid R" ratings "made it much more difficult to fundraise"⁠¹⁰. The filings fit his complaint, though processed FEC data can lag the late reports campaigns file in the final weeks.