University of Virginia Center for Politics
Larry Sabato's University of Virginia institute; publishes Sabato's Crystal Ball election ratings.
The University of Virginia Center for Politics' Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted 11 House ratings towards Democrats on 29 September 2026, and now counts 213 seats in the Democratic columns to 202 for Republicans, with 218 needed to control the chamber.
Last refreshed: 1 October 2026
Who is behind Sabato's Crystal Ball?
Timeline for University of Virginia Center for Politics
Mentioned in: Sabato's 11 moves include Kiggans's seat
US Midterms 2026Mentioned in: Texas Senate, TX-35 both slip to Leans Republican
US Midterms 2026Mentioned in: Sabato moves six House seats toward Democrats
US Midterms 2026Background
The University of Virginia Center for Politics publishes Sabato's Crystal Ball, a set of race ratings for House, Senate and governor contests that tracks the 2026 midterms seat by seat.
Professor Larry J. Sabato founded the centre and is its director, according to the University of Virginia's politics department. He also directs the Crystal Ball.
The ratings sort each seat into SAFE, Likely, Leans or Toss-up columns. A batch of rating changes therefore moves the overall count of seats each party is favoured to win, which is how a single update can shift the centre's read of The House majority.
The Crystal Ball tilts towards Democrats
The centre's Crystal Ball made 11 House rating changes on 29 September 2026, every one of them towards Democrats. Its map now shows 213 seats at least leaning Democratic, 202 at least leaning Republican and 20 Toss-ups.
Three of the moves were in Virginia, the centre's home state, where early voting began on 18 September; among them, the 2nd District held by Republican Jen Kiggans moved to Leans Democratic. Missouri's 2nd District also tightened after the Supreme Court kept the state's 2022 map, leaving Republican Ann Wagner a less SAFE seat. With 218 seats needed for a House majority, the Crystal Ball's Democratic column sits five short.