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US Midterms 2026
11NOV

Day 9: Late ballots flip North Carolina's 3rd

3 min read
18:10UTC

A Democrat has overtaken Representative Greg Murphy in North Carolina's 3rd District on provisional ballots, one of four seats in the state inside the recount line. Late ballots also widened the Democratic leads in the Mississippi and Alaska Senate races. Republicans have answered with preservation letters and a records fight, and Trump with a post blaming the machines.

Key takeaway

Late ballots flipped North Carolina's 3rd and widened two Senate leads; Republicans are preserving ballots, not suing.

This briefing mapped
Domestic
Legal

Provisional ballots split 1,114 to 602 for Raymond Smith, turning a 233-vote deficit in North Carolina's 3rd District into a 293-vote lead over Representative Greg Murphy.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Late-counted provisional ballots moved North Carolina's 3rd District to Democrat Raymond Smith. He now leads Representative Greg Murphy by 293 votes, after trailing by 233 on polling night.

Three more Republican-held seats tightened in the same state file. Four North Carolina House races can now face recounts, and candidates must ask by noon on 17 November. 

Rankin County, Cindy Hyde-Smith's suburban stronghold, split its affidavit ballots 476 to 472, and Scott Colom's Senate lead grew to 2,990 votes.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources from United States
United States
LeftRight

Democrat Scott Colom's lead over Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith grew to 2,990 votes on 10 November, after Rankin County counted its last affidavit and absentee ballots. Counties certify their returns on 13 November.

Republicans have demanded that affidavit ballots be kept apart, which preserves evidence for a court fight. Mississippi holds a recount only if a judge orders one. 

Mary Peltola's first-choice lead over Senator Dan S. Sullivan reached 4,250 votes as her campaign went to court for the register of rejected absentee ballots.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources from United States
United States
LeftRight

Mary Peltola led Senator Dan S. Sullivan by 4,250 first-choice votes in Alaska's count released late on 10 November. More than 245,000 ballots have now been counted.

The ranked-choice tabulation on 18 November decides the seat. Ballots for a namesake candidate, Dan J. Sullivan, could shift the result, and the governor says investigators are looking at his run. 

Democrat Chris Mann beat Attorney General Kris Kobach 50.62% to 49.38%, and Kansas counties are hand-counting six races decided within a point.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Democrat Chris Mann beat Attorney General Kris Kobach in Kansas, the Associated Press called on 6 November. He won by 552,753 votes to 539,297 at 99% reporting.

Kansas counties are now hand-counting six close races, including governor, under the state's close-race audit law. Every county must finish by 16 November, and Ty Masterson has not conceded the governorship. 

Representative Joe Wilson leads Democrat Zyon Khalifa by 2,926 votes, a margin of 0.986% that puts his seat just inside South Carolina's automatic recount line.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

South Carolina's election commission opened automatic recounts in three races, including the 2nd District. There Representative Joe Wilson leads Democrat Zyon Khalifa by 2,926 votes, or 0.986% of the vote.

Two state House seats are separated by 32 and 106 votes, so they are far likelier to change hands. Nancy Lacore missed the recount line in the 1st District and keeps her win. 

The Justice Department withdrew its suit over about 20,000 California mail ballots, and Judge David O. Carter closed it with a rebuke: "The right to vote is sacred."

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Judge David O. Carter closed the Justice Department's case over about 20,000 California mail ballots on 10 November, after the department withdrew it. He wrote that the suit had tried to disrupt an ongoing election.

The department had already lost twice, before Carter and the 9th Circuit, in late October. No court order now touches any 2026 California ballot. 

House Republicans picked Jim Jordan over Steve Scalise, 106 to 73, while Senate Republicans kept John Thune despite a push from the right to delay his vote.

Sources profile:This story draws on mixed-leaning sources from United States and United Arab Emirates
United StatesUnited Arab Emirates

Donald Trump asked on Truth Social whether anybody believed the election was honest, six days after telling The New York Times he would accept the results.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Donald Trump questioned on Truth Social on 9 November whether the midterms were honest, saying it was all about the machines. On polling night he had told The New York Times he would accept the results.

No Republican campaign had gone to court over any 2026 result by 10 November. So far the claim lives in posts, not in a lawsuit. 

Sources:Yahoo News

Decision Desk HQ called 255 of 435 House seats for Democrats a week after polling day, with 19 races still open and two Louisiana runoffs set for December.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources
Sources:270toWin

Democrat Matt Dunlap conceded Maine's 2nd District to Paul LePage on 5 November, before the ranked-choice runoff his 48.307% had forced.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources
Sources:KMPH

About 124.3 million ballots set a raw record for a midterm, but the University of Florida Election Lab puts turnout at 49.4%, second to 2018.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

About 124.3 million Americans voted in the 2026 midterms, the most ballots ever cast in a midterm, University of Florida Election Lab estimates show.

Turnout as a share of eligible voters was 49.4%, second to 2018. The record count reflects a larger electorate as much as greater enthusiasm. 

Closing comments

Sideways for now, with dated tipping points. The contest stays in letters and records fights unless a certified count goes against a Republican by a margin a court might move. Mississippi's 13 November county returns come first, because only a court order can reopen ballots there and the NRSC's preservation directives are the groundwork for one; a 2,990-vote gap and Rankin County's level affidavit split, 476 to 472 where Hyde-Smith takes 61%, make that a weak case on the numbers. North Carolina's noon 17 November recount deadline and Alaska's 18 November tabulation follow, and a Sullivan loss there would test whether Republicans move from intervening in Peltola's records case to suing over a 2026 result.

Different Perspectives
Scott Colom's campaign
Scott Colom's campaign
Colom's counsel, Elias Law Group, told Republicans their ballot preservation demands have "no basis in Mississippi law", and on 9 November Colom said forecasters' "solid R" ratings made fundraising harder. FEC filings bear him out: he raised $4.40m to Hyde-Smith's $6.28m, yet leads by 2,990.
Cindy Hyde-Smith's campaign, the NRSC and the Mississippi Republican Party
Cindy Hyde-Smith's campaign, the NRSC and the Mississippi Republican Party
Hyde-Smith's campaign said "thousands of votes remain to be counted from dozens of Republican counties", while the state party and the NRSC told counties to segregate and preserve affidavit ballots. Chair Mike Hurst, also RNC general counsel, said the party would hold officials accountable, though no suit had been filed by 10 November.
Alaska's Senate campaigns, Mary Peltola and Senator Dan S. Sullivan
Alaska's Senate campaigns, Mary Peltola and Senator Dan S. Sullivan
Peltola's campaign sued on 6 November for the absentee register with each accept and reject code; Sullivan's campaign moved on 9 November to join the case, arguing she wants to influence which ballots count outside the statutory review. Alaska lets voters fix no absentee defects, so those codes are the only record for contesting a rejection.
Representative Virginia Foxx
Representative Virginia Foxx
Foxx called in congressional election observers on 6 November and briefly led by 38 votes on 10 November, before provisional ballots put Chuck Hubbard 335 ahead. At 0.117% she can demand a recount after the 13 November canvass, by noon on 17 November.
Ty Masterson, Republican candidate for governor of Kansas
Ty Masterson, Republican candidate for governor of Kansas
Masterson has not conceded to Cindy Holscher, who leads by about 0.6 points and has declared victory. Secretary of State Scott Schwab's hand-count audit of the race, due in every county by 16 November, checks the machine totals before certification on 1 December.
South Carolina State Election Commission
South Carolina State Election Commission
The commission opened an automatic recount in the 2nd District, where Joe Wilson leads Zyon Khalifa by 2,926 votes, 0.986%, with none of five counties recounted when Lowdown read its feed. South Carolina recounts any race inside 1% without a request, so the state, not a losing campaign, triggers the second count.