Raymond Smith, the Democrat, now leads Representative Greg Murphy by 293 votes of 239,690 (0.122%) in North Carolina's 3rd District, 118,488 to 118,195, on the precinct results file the North Carolina State Board of Elections (NCSBE) posted on Wednesday 11 November1. Murphy led by 233 when the state's House count was last tallied. Provisional ballots, cast when a voter's eligibility needs checking, went to Smith by 1,114 to 602. On Lowdown's arithmetic that 512-vote net accounts for almost all of the 526-vote swing. The seat changed hands on ballots counted a week after polling day, once counties had confirmed each provisional voter's eligibility.
The same file moves three more seats. In the 5th, Chuck Hubbard leads Representative Virginia Foxx by 335 of 286,820 votes (0.117%), although Foxx had gone 38 votes ahead at 5:20pm on Tuesday 10 November on board snapshots tabulated by WataugaOnline, a local news site2. The provisional batches then split 744 to 515 his way3. Foxx had announced on 6 November that congressional election observers would attend the count at her request.
Representative David Rouzer's lead over Kimberly Hardy in the 7th has shrunk to 2,270 from 2,425, or 0.704%. The 10th has newly fallen inside the 1% line: Representative Pat Harrigan leads Ashley Bell by 2,485 (0.841%). Mark Harris in the 8th sits outside it at 1.71%. Democrats now lead 11 of the state's 14 districts, one more than a week ago.
North Carolina lets the trailing candidate ask for a recount when the margin is 1% or less. With four seats inside that line, two Republicans (Murphy and Foxx) and two Democrats (Hardy and Bell) can each demand one once counties canvass on Friday 13 November. Demands are due by noon on Tuesday 17 November. Late provisional ballots tend to break Democratic, so the drift itself was predictable; in the 3rd it has now changed who holds the lead.
