Cook Political Report moved New Hampshire's Senate contest out of Lean Democrat and into Toss Up on 15 September, a shift towards Republicans1. Republican John E. Sununu, a former US senator who served from 2003 to 2008, faces Democratic Representative Chris Pappas for the seat Jeanne Shaheen is leaving.
Cook tied the move to money, writing that "the amount of money national Republicans have dedicated to this race is a flashing red light for Democrats". It also conceded that the race "could still move back in Democrats' direction before Election Day". The filings show that spending. Sununu received the fourth-biggest share of the Republican committee's August coordination, and New Hampshire was among the five Senate races No Going Back PAC funded in its latest week.
That makes New Hampshire the one state where the NRSC's August money and a rating move point the same way. Cook framed the contest as a test of whether Sununu's own brand can escape the drag of Trump's unpopularity.
New Hampshire held its 8 September primary under a student-ID exclusion that a federal judge declined to block, while leaving the general election open to a different ruling.
