Larry Sabato
University of Virginia political scientist who founded the Center for Politics and its Crystal Ball.
On 14 October 2026 Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball rated five Senate races as Toss Ups, all of them Republican-held: Kansas, Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas.
Last refreshed: 18 October 2026
Timeline for Larry Sabato
Mentioned in: Cook and Sabato moves run to Democrats
US Midterms 2026Background
Larry Sabato runs Sabato's Crystal Ball, one of the two race-rating services most closely followed in the 2026 midterms. Its 14 October update listed five Republican-held Senate seats as Toss Ups: Kansas, Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas. It followed Cook Political Report in moving Kansas to Toss Up.
Sabato is the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia, where he founded and directs the Center for Politics. The centre publishes the Crystal Ball as a free newsletter of analysis and ratings, with Kyle Kondik as its managing editor.
His ratings matter because campaigns, donors and the press read them as a guide to where the competitive races are. Its September moves had already widened the map towards Democrats.
Sabato's ratings run towards Democrats
Sabato's Crystal Ball listed five Senate Toss Ups on 14 October 2026, and Republicans hold every one: Kansas, Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas. On those ratings Republicans must win four of the five to keep the Senate, while Democrats need two. The Kansas move followed Cook Political Report, which had shifted the race to Toss Up on 6 October.
The October list extends a September run of Crystal Ball moves that had already widened the map towards Democrats. For Sabato's forecast the question is one of direction: when most moves point one way three weeks before polling day, they describe a national tide rather than one weak candidate. In autumn 2022 forecasters drifted the other way and overshot.
Who is Larry Sabato?
Which Senate races does Sabato's Crystal Ball rate as Toss Ups?
What is Sabato's Crystal Ball?
Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Updated 18 October 2026. Editorial standards.